* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST          *
                    * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  EUGENE      EP052017  07/11/17  00 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    60    55    50    45    40    31    22   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS
V (KT) LAND       60    55    50    45    40    31    22   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS
V (KT) LGEM       60    54    49    44    39    31    25    21    17   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  EXTP

SHEAR (KT)         6     6     6     9     9     9    12     9    12     9    14    14    22
SHEAR ADJ (KT)     5     6     3     2     0     0     0     0     0     1     0     0     4
SHEAR DIR        245   231   250   259   258   234   223   211   212   196   181   196   207
SST (C)         24.7  24.0  23.5  23.1  22.6  21.6  20.8  20.6  20.4  20.3  20.1  19.7  19.3
POT. INT. (KT)   110   102    97    93    87    76    68    65    63    62    60    60    60
200 MB T (C)   -52.1 -52.1 -52.2 -52.0 -51.8 -51.7 -51.4 -51.3 -51.4 -51.6 -51.7 -52.3 -52.8
200 MB VXT (C)   0.5   0.5   0.5   0.6   0.8   0.8   0.8   0.6   0.7   0.9   0.8   0.6   0.4
TH_E DEV (C)       4     4     2     1     1     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0
700-500 MB RH     59    56    58    54    50    51    46    46    41    39    34    28    24
MODEL VTX (KT)    20    21    20    19    18    17    15    13    11     9     7     5     4
850 MB ENV VOR    18    33    49    59    53    41    18    15    -4   -19   -33   -62   -60
200 MB DIV        -2   -10   -19   -16   -19   -18    -7    -1    -5    16    -1     5     4
700-850 TADV      -7    -5    -4    -2    -3    -1     2     0     3     0     0     0     0
LAND (KM)        807   792   791   783   762   733   753   792   794   810   791   812   884
LAT (DEG N)     19.8  20.6  21.4  22.1  22.8  24.0  25.2  26.2  27.1  27.9  28.6  29.2  29.8
LONG(DEG W)    118.0 118.6 119.1 119.7 120.2 121.0 122.0 122.8 123.4 124.0 124.8 126.1 127.8
STM SPEED (KT)     9    10     9     9     8     7     7     6     5     5     6     7     8
HEAT CONTENT       0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0

  FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/  9      CX,CY:  -5/  7
  T-12 MAX WIND:  75            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  479  (MEAN=550)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  11.3 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  82.0 (MEAN=65.0)
  PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR):            0.0

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -2.
  SST POTENTIAL         -1.  -2.  -4.  -7. -13. -18. -21. -24. -25. -25. -26. -30.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     0.   1.   2.   3.   4.   5.   5.   4.   3.   1.   0.  -2.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ    -0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR    -0.  -0.   0.   0.   1.   3.   4.   5.   6.   6.   6.   6.
  PERSISTENCE           -4.  -6.  -7.  -7.  -7.  -6.  -5.  -3.  -2.  -1.   1.   3.
  200/250 MB TEMP.      -0.  -0.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  THETA_E EXCESS        -0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -4.  -6.  -8. -11. -13. -16. -18. -20.
  700-500 MB RH         -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -6.  -7.
  MODEL VTX TENDENCY     0.  -0.  -1.  -2.  -4.  -7. -10. -13. -15. -16. -17. -16.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.   0.   0.   1.   1.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE     -0.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -4.  -4.  -4.  -4.  -4.  -4.  -3.  -2.
  850-700 T ADVEC       -0.  -0.   0.   0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION    -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES   -0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -2.  -3.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.   0.  -0.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.
  GOES PREDICTORS        0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT    -0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE          -5. -10. -15. -20. -29. -38. -45. -52. -57. -63. -67. -73.

                CURRENT MAX WIND (KT):   60. LAT, LON:   19.8   118.0

      ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052017 EUGENE     07/11/17  00 UTC **
 (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
 
     Predictor             Value   RI Predictor Range  Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):   -15.0     -22.0  to   44.0       0.11         999.0
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   :    37.8      40.5  to  149.3       0.00           0.0
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :     7.3      18.9  to    1.4       0.66         999.0
 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) :     0.0       0.0  to  106.7       0.00           0.0
 MAXIMUM WIND (kt)     :    60.0      22.5  to  132.0       0.97         999.0
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :   -13.2     -33.0  to  156.2       0.10         999.0
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :    11.3      37.8  to    2.1       0.74         999.0
 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm:     6.0      62.3  to    0.0       0.90         999.0
 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP  :    -0.7       2.2  to   -1.9       0.71         999.0
 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2):   442.0     735.9  to  -82.5       0.36         999.0
 
 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold=   3% is   0.4 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  10% is   0.7 times sample mean (15.3%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean (10.4%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%)
    
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  RI (kt / h)  | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48  |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   SHIPS-RII:     3.4%   10.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%
    Logistic:     0.2%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%
    Bayesian:     0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%
   Consensus:     1.2%    3.4%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052017 EUGENE     07/11/17  00 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##