* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* EUGENE EP052017 07/11/17 06 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 55 49 44 37 33 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LAND 55 49 44 37 33 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LGEM 55 49 44 39 35 28 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 6 8 10 9 8 11 10 11 12 12 13 N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 3 1 2 2 1 1 -1 0 0 0 N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 232 245 261 258 235 222 229 217 215 198 186 N/A N/A
SST (C) 24.2 23.7 23.3 22.9 22.5 21.4 20.8 20.6 20.5 20.4 20.3 N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 104 99 94 90 86 74 68 65 64 62 61 N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.3 -52.2 -51.8 -51.8 -51.6 -51.2 -51.2 -51.2 -51.4 -51.8 N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.9 1.2 0.7 N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 57 59 55 52 50 48 43 40 35 31 28 N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 19 17 18 15 14 12 10 8 7 LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 24 39 46 46 49 29 21 2 -14 -22 -46 N/A N/A
200 MB DIV -14 -23 -5 -15 -20 -16 -11 -3 0 5 -5 N/A N/A
700-850 TADV -4 -3 -3 -4 -3 1 -1 2 3 3 2 N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 809 809 812 794 775 768 822 882 892 911 909 N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 20.3 21.0 21.7 22.3 22.9 24.1 25.1 26.1 26.9 27.5 27.9 N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 118.5 119.1 119.6 120.1 120.5 121.5 122.7 123.7 124.4 125.1 125.8 N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 7 7 7 7 6 4 4 3 N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 8 CX,CY: -4/ 7
T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 490 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -11. -16. -18. -21. -21. -20. -21. -24.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 1. -0. -0. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7.
PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. -5. -3. -2. -1. 1. 3.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -16. -18. -20.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -2. -1. -5. -6. -10. -13. -14. -15. -14. -13.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2.
GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -6. -11. -18. -22. -33. -40. -47. -53. -57. -61. -62. -64.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 20.3 118.5
** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052017 EUGENE 07/11/17 06 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 39.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.62 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.00 0.0
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : -15.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.09 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.68 999.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 6.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.90 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.56 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 411.4 735.9 to -82.5 0.40 999.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.5 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 2.1% 8.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 0.7% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052017 EUGENE 07/11/17 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##