* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* FOUR AL042017 07/11/17 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 31 36 39 46 49 55 59 63 65
V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 31 36 39 46 49 55 59 63 65
V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 26 28 30 33 37 42 47 54 61
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 16 8 10 12 8 10 12 9 6 3 5 7 12
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 0 -2 -4 -4 -4 -4 -1 1 -2 1 -3
SHEAR DIR 278 271 238 265 286 267 294 253 298 269 344 350 51
SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.0 28.1 28.5 29.1 29.3 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.4
POT. INT. (KT) 143 142 141 140 137 138 145 154 157 164 161 158 156
ADJ. POT. INT. 130 129 128 127 124 126 133 141 144 146 142 135 132
200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.4 -54.1 -54.2 -54.2 -53.8 -54.3 -53.8 -54.0 -53.6 -53.8 -53.2 -53.5
200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1
TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 11 12 10
700-500 MB RH 47 49 49 47 47 51 50 52 52 54 54 56 62
MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 2
850 MB ENV VOR -19 -12 -13 -26 -32 -7 -20 -12 -36 -22 -45 -18 -18
200 MB DIV -1 12 -7 -16 1 0 14 -1 5 -5 -2 4 0
700-850 TADV -4 -6 -9 -9 -5 -9 -1 -3 -2 4 -1 1 1
LAND (KM) 404 390 368 343 322 209 105 60 91 264 342 319 238
LAT (DEG N) 23.1 23.2 23.1 22.9 22.9 22.8 22.8 23.3 24.0 25.1 26.1 27.1 28.0
LONG(DEG W) 68.5 69.6 70.7 71.8 72.9 75.0 77.4 79.7 82.2 84.2 85.8 86.8 87.2
STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 10 10 12 11 12 9 8 5 5
HEAT CONTENT 25 33 42 40 41 26 64 47 33 40 65 40 32
FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 701 (MEAN=618)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.2
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 17. 21. 26. 29. 32. 34.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 7. 8. 8. 8. 6.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -6. -9. -9. -11. -13. -12.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 11. 14. 21. 24. 30. 34. 38. 40.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 23.1 68.5
** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042017 FOUR 07/11/17 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.6
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.2 30.1 to 2.9 0.70 2.1
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 36.2 0.0 to 156.2 0.23 0.7
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.4 to -3.0 0.51 1.6
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.70 2.3
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.8 28.4 to 139.6 0.67 1.4
D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.13 0.1
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 200.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.74 0.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 45.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.54 0.1
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 5.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times sample mean (11.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 4.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 5.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 6.2% 16.4% 13.0% 7.9% 0.0% 0.0% 14.1% 0.0%
Logistic: 2.3% 7.3% 4.2% 1.5% 0.4% 0.6% 1.4% 7.4%
Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 2.9% 7.9% 5.7% 3.1% 0.1% 0.2% 5.2% 2.5%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042017 FOUR 07/11/17 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042017 FOUR 07/11/2017 12 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 29 31 36 39 46 49 55 59 63 65
18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 29 34 37 44 47 53 57 61 63
12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 30 33 40 43 49 53 57 59
6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 22 25 32 35 41 45 49 51
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT