* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* EUGENE EP052017 07/11/17 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 45 38 32 27 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LAND 45 38 32 27 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LGEM 45 39 35 31 28 22 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 9 9 8 9 11 13 11 13 15 19 22 N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 0 -1 -1 -1 0 -2 0 0 2 N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 234 245 247 238 246 243 247 217 214 206 211 N/A N/A
SST (C) 23.7 23.3 23.0 22.5 22.0 21.0 20.6 20.5 20.4 20.2 19.8 N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 99 94 91 86 81 70 66 64 63 60 58 N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.3 -52.1 -52.1 -52.2 -51.9 -51.9 -51.8 -51.9 -51.8 -52.3 N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.6 1.0 1.0 0.6 N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 58 54 50 49 49 43 41 36 33 31 29 N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 18 17 16 16 16 14 13 11 9 8 5 LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 44 49 49 54 43 23 9 -11 -20 -29 -49 N/A N/A
200 MB DIV -27 -12 -19 -15 -7 -18 0 4 2 5 8 N/A N/A
700-850 TADV -1 -1 -2 -1 0 2 0 5 1 0 0 N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 814 821 806 790 782 801 852 892 911 881 856 N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 21.0 21.6 22.2 22.8 23.4 24.6 25.8 26.7 27.5 28.2 28.9 N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 119.1 119.6 120.1 120.6 121.1 122.2 123.3 124.3 125.1 125.8 126.4 N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 4 4 N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 9 CX,CY: -4/ 7
T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 491 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.2 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -3. -5. -9. -12. -13. -14. -13. -12. -12. -16.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 1. -3. -7. -7. -7.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9.
PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -6. -4. -3. -2. 1. 3.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -14. -16. -19. -20.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -12. -13. -16. -15. -14.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -7. -13. -18. -22. -32. -37. -42. -47. -51. -58. -59. -61.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 21.0 119.1
** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052017 EUGENE 07/11/17 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 0.3
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 45.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.04 0.1
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.55 1.1
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.00 0.0
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 1.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : -16.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.09 0.1
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.52 0.8
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 11.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.82 -0.3
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.57 0.1
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 347.8 735.9 to -82.5 0.47 0.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.2 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.3 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 1.8% 4.6% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 0.6% 1.5% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052017 EUGENE 07/11/17 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##