* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST          *
                    * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  SIX         EP062017  07/12/17  00 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    30    34    38    43    48    55    64    70    73    73    73    73    72
V (KT) LAND       30    34    38    43    48    55    64    70    73    73    73    73    72
V (KT) LGEM       30    33    36    39    43    50    57    63    66    68    70    71    72
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)         9     9     8    10    10     9     8     9     8     9     8     7     5
SHEAR ADJ (KT)    -4    -2    -2    -3    -4    -1     0    -3     0    -2    -2    -2    -2
SHEAR DIR         55    54    59    46    46    42    25    10    16   333   334   315   287
SST (C)         28.8  28.9  28.9  28.8  28.6  28.4  28.5  28.4  28.0  28.2  28.7  28.6  28.3
POT. INT. (KT)   153   153   153   152   150   148   150   149   145   147   153   152   149
200 MB T (C)   -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 -53.2 -53.8 -53.4 -53.7 -53.4 -53.7 -53.4 -53.8 -53.7
200 MB VXT (C)  -0.2  -0.2   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.2   0.1   0.1   0.2   0.2   0.2   0.3   0.3
TH_E DEV (C)       8     8     8     7     7     7     7     7     7     7     7     6     6
700-500 MB RH     71    71    72    71    71    70    71    71    71    70    69    67    64
MODEL VTX (KT)     7     7     8     9     9     9    10    10    10    10     9    10    11
850 MB ENV VOR   -23   -15    -7     3     4    -1    11    15    17    11     5     1     0
200 MB DIV        16    10     7    16    13     9    43    60    52    44    50    45    59
700-850 TADV       0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0    -2    -2    -3
LAND (KM)        924   980  1044  1109  1179  1297  1401  1555  1734  1900  2080  2274  2471
LAT (DEG N)     12.2 xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x 
LONG(DEG W)    109.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT)    10     9     9     9     9    10    10    11    12    13    13    14    14
HEAT CONTENT      31    28    28    26    22    19    21    20    38    49    31    16    16

  FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10      CX,CY:  -9/  0
  T-12 MAX WIND:  25            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  503  (MEAN=550)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  13.5 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  85.0 (MEAN=65.0)
  PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR):            9.4

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -2.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.   0.   1.   2.   7.  13.  19.  24.  27.  28.  29.  29.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     1.   2.   2.   3.   3.   3.   3.   3.   3.   3.   4.   6.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   8.   9.   9.   9.   8.   6.   4.
  PERSISTENCE            1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.      -0.   0.  -0.  -0.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -2.  -2.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   3.   3.   3.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   3.   4.
  MODEL VTX TENDENCY     0.   0.   1.   2.   2.   4.   4.   3.   3.   2.   3.   3.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE     -0.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -0.  -0.  -0.
  850-700 T ADVEC        0.   0.  -0.  -0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.   1.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES   -0.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.   0.  -0.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  GOES PREDICTORS        1.   2.   3.   3.   3.   3.   2.   1.   0.  -0.  -1.  -1.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.   1.   1.   0.  -0.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           4.   8.  13.  18.  25.  34.  40.  43.  43.  43.  43.  42.

                CURRENT MAX WIND (KT):   30. LAT, LON:   12.2   109.4

      ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062017 SIX        07/12/17  00 UTC **
 (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
 
     Predictor             Value   RI Predictor Range  Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):     5.0     -22.0  to   44.0       0.41           3.2
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   :   122.3      40.5  to  149.3       0.75           3.7
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :     9.3      18.9  to    1.4       0.55           3.7
 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) :    27.0       0.0  to  106.7       0.25           1.4
 MAXIMUM WIND (kt)     :    30.0      22.5  to  132.0       0.21           1.1
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :    12.4     -33.0  to  156.2       0.24           1.1
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :    13.5      37.8  to    2.1       0.68           3.3
 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm:     0.0      62.3  to    0.0       1.00          -1.4
 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP  :     0.8       2.2  to   -1.9       0.35           0.2
 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2):    82.6     735.9  to  -82.5       0.80           0.0
 
 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold=  12% is   1.6 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  22% is   1.4 times sample mean (15.3%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  16% is   1.6 times sample mean (10.4%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  13% is   1.7 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold=  17% is   2.1 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold=  16% is   2.1 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold=  12% is   2.2 times sample mean ( 5.5%)
    
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  RI (kt / h)  | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48  |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   SHIPS-RII:    12.0%   21.9%   16.2%   13.0%    0.0%   16.8%   15.7%   11.9%
    Logistic:    10.6%   35.1%   17.0%   14.6%    9.5%   21.2%   34.8%   47.7%
    Bayesian:     0.2%   23.5%    5.9%    1.8%    0.3%    4.7%    8.6%    2.9%
   Consensus:     7.6%   26.8%   13.0%    9.8%    3.3%   14.2%   19.7%   20.8%

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062017 SIX        07/12/17  00 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##