* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* EUGENE EP052017 07/12/17 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 26 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LAND 30 26 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LGEM 30 27 25 22 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 15 17 18 18 16 15 17 23 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 0 0 0 0 2 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 250 254 262 267 265 253 238 227 230 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 21.4 21.0 20.7 20.6 20.6 20.5 20.4 20.1 19.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 75 70 67 66 66 65 63 59 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.7 -51.5 -51.4 -51.1 -50.9 -51.1 -51.5 -52.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 45 42 41 40 38 33 29 26 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 10 10 9 8 5 5 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 46 30 14 2 -8 -27 -42 -55 -60 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV -12 -27 -21 -13 -13 -6 4 -9 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV 0 4 2 0 3 4 4 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 846 860 882 915 952 994 973 964 972 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 23.8 24.4 25.0 25.5 26.0 26.8 27.7 28.3 28.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 122.2 122.8 123.3 123.9 124.4 125.5 126.6 127.3 127.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 7 7 7 5 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 6
T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.9 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -8. -10. -10. -8. -7. -4. -1. -1. -5.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 3. -2. -10. -16. -20. -20. -19.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 12. 14. 15. 16. 16.
PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2.
THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -13. -15. -18. -20. -22.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -13. -12. -12. -11. -10.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -11. -11.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0.
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TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -12. -17. -23. -30. -37. -47. -51. -54. -57. -61.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 23.8 122.2
** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052017 EUGENE 07/12/17 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 38.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.13 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.00 0.0
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : -17.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.08 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.81 999.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 41.8 62.3 to 0.0 0.33 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.63 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 264.0 735.9 to -82.5 0.58 999.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.2 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 1.8% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 0.6% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052017 EUGENE 07/12/17 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##