* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* FERNANDA EP062017 07/13/17 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 65 73 80 85 90 98 103 106 109 109 106 99 89
V (KT) LAND 65 73 80 85 90 98 103 106 109 109 106 99 89
V (KT) LGEM 65 73 80 86 90 98 105 112 117 116 109 94 78
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 6 4 4 3 5 4 6 4 4 5 2 1 7
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 0 -2 -3 -2 -3 -4 -3 -3 4 5 0
SHEAR DIR 10 20 19 6 21 57 21 52 42 13 250 336 321
SST (C) 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.2 28.2 28.6 28.8 28.4 27.6 26.8 26.2
POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 151 150 149 147 147 151 153 149 141 133 126
200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.0 -53.2 -53.5 -53.4 -53.1 -53.0 -52.5 -52.8 -52.3 -52.2 -52.1 -52.4
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.8
TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 5
700-500 MB RH 71 72 72 71 68 68 68 70 68 64 59 55 47
MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 17 17 18 20 21 22 26 29 32 31 29
850 MB ENV VOR 12 16 18 19 25 30 15 14 10 14 21 35 64
200 MB DIV 70 80 72 50 75 76 59 88 76 91 62 51 45
700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 -2 -4 -6 -5 -5 -6 -3 -1 2
LAND (KM) 1409 1464 1524 1593 1666 1809 1926 2052 2182 2307 2369 2237 1960
LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.3 11.2 11.1 10.9 10.9 11.2 11.6 12.1 12.7 13.7 14.5 15.1
LONG(DEG W) 115.6 116.6 117.5 118.5 119.4 121.5 123.6 125.9 128.1 130.2 132.1 134.4 136.9
STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 9 10 10 10 12 11 11 11 12 12
HEAT CONTENT 22 20 19 18 20 37 53 45 18 13 6 5 2
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ -1
T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 502 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.5 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 25.6
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 8. 7. 5.
PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 8. 10. 15. 18. 20. 18. 13.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 2. 1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0.
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TOTAL CHANGE 8. 15. 20. 25. 33. 38. 41. 44. 44. 41. 34. 24.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 11.4 115.6
** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062017 FERNANDA 07/13/17 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 12.5
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.41 5.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.84 13.9
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 19.8 0.0 to 106.7 0.19 2.5
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 11.1
D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.54 6.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.82 9.8
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -3.4
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.47 0.6
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 200.6 735.9 to -82.5 0.65 0.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 58% is 7.6 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 67% is 4.4 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 58% is 5.6 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 52% is 7.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 6.9 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 54% is 6.7 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 34% is 4.6 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 5.5%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 58.2% 67.2% 58.2% 52.2% 35.7% 54.1% 34.0% 11.6%
Logistic: 60.7% 78.0% 72.0% 69.5% 62.5% 51.5% 38.7% 21.2%
Bayesian: 44.6% 62.7% 41.2% 28.7% 20.4% 17.1% 7.1% 0.2%
Consensus: 54.5% 69.3% 57.2% 50.1% 39.5% 40.9% 26.6% 11.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062017 FERNANDA 07/13/17 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##