* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* FERNANDA EP062017 07/15/17 06 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 125 126 126 125 123 122 116 106 93 80 71 63 59
V (KT) LAND 125 126 126 125 123 122 116 106 93 80 71 63 59
V (KT) LGEM 125 125 121 117 115 112 107 95 79 65 55 47 41
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 7 7 4 6 4 2 4 2 5 3 8 12 12
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 2 0 -4 -5 -1 0 8 10 9 3 2 15
SHEAR DIR 4 334 359 36 41 342 215 228 235 265 271 279 269
SST (C) 28.2 28.1 28.2 28.4 28.6 28.7 28.0 27.3 26.5 25.9 25.6 25.3 25.1
POT. INT. (KT) 147 146 147 149 151 152 144 137 129 122 119 115 113
200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.8 -52.6 -52.0 -52.6 -52.8 -52.3 -52.3 -52.2 -52.4 -52.0 -52.4 -52.1
200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.4
TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 7 7 6 6 5 4 4 4 4 5
700-500 MB RH 70 68 70 71 70 66 64 61 60 56 48 45 40
MODEL VTX (KT) 22 22 23 23 22 26 28 30 28 26 25 23 23
850 MB ENV VOR 30 24 20 18 17 14 23 31 41 43 64 60 77
200 MB DIV 80 64 76 90 89 104 107 74 94 38 38 10 -9
700-850 TADV -5 -6 -7 -8 -7 -5 -1 -1 4 5 9 6 7
LAND (KM) 1803 1866 1917 1976 2042 2177 2287 2377 2221 2025 1842 1674 1508
LAT (DEG N) 10.8 11.1 11.3 11.6 11.9 12.5 13.2 14.0 15.0 15.7 16.3 16.8 17.2
LONG(DEG W) 121.3 122.5 123.6 124.8 126.1 128.4 130.5 132.5 134.4 136.1 137.7 139.2 140.7
STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 13 12 12 10 11 10 8 8 7 7
HEAT CONTENT 33 45 51 47 38 13 12 7 4 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.1 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -9. -17. -26. -37. -46. -53. -59. -62. -62.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -1. 2. 5. 9. 12. 14. 15. 14. 12.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -2. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -11.
PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 5. 3. 1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. 5. 8. 11. 8. 5. 3. 1. 1.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0.
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TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -9. -19. -32. -45. -54. -62. -66.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 125. LAT, LON: 10.8 121.3
** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062017 FERNANDA 07/15/17 06 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 999.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 23.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.77 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 42.8 0.0 to 106.7 0.40 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 125.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.09 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 79.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.60 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 999.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.64 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 382.0 735.9 to -82.5 0.43 999.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
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SHIPS-RII: 16.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 3.4% 3.7% 2.5% 1.6% 0.7% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0%
Bayesian: 4.1% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 7.9% 1.7% 0.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062017 FERNANDA 07/15/17 06 UTC ##