* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* FERNANDA EP062017 07/16/17 06 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 115 116 119 122 122 118 107 92 81 68 59 51 45
V (KT) LAND 115 116 119 122 122 118 107 92 81 68 59 51 45
V (KT) LGEM 115 114 113 112 109 99 86 72 58 48 41 35 27
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 2 4 1 1 3 3 6 8 8 10 14 21 30
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -1 -2 -3 5 8 7 4 3 11 13 13
SHEAR DIR 344 31 188 27 159 187 271 269 268 278 271 265 257
SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.3 27.9 27.2 26.6 25.9 25.2 24.9 25.0 25.1 25.1
POT. INT. (KT) 150 151 151 148 144 135 129 121 114 111 112 113 113
200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -52.2 -52.5 -52.3 -52.3 -52.5 -52.3 -52.6 -52.1 -52.5 -52.6
200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.7
TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 4 3 4 4 5
700-500 MB RH 69 69 67 64 63 60 61 59 58 53 52 53 53
MODEL VTX (KT) 24 26 27 28 28 30 29 27 26 23 23 21 19
850 MB ENV VOR 7 5 11 11 14 31 40 40 56 46 51 41 26
200 MB DIV 72 75 86 105 85 75 81 39 39 -10 -16 -2 -18
700-850 TADV -7 -6 -4 -4 -3 -2 1 6 9 8 7 10 8
LAND (KM) 2013 2072 2137 2196 2241 2330 2307 2146 1976 1809 1642 1454 1265
LAT (DEG N) 11.9 12.3 12.6 13.1 13.5 14.2 14.9 15.8 16.8 17.3 17.3 17.3 17.4
LONG(DEG W) 125.7 126.9 128.0 129.1 130.2 132.1 133.6 134.9 136.3 137.8 139.4 141.2 143.0
STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 11 12 11 8 8 8 8 7 8 9 9
HEAT CONTENT 41 27 16 13 11 6 6 0 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 572 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.1 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -6. -13. -23. -33. -42. -49. -53. -56. -56.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 10. 6.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 4. 7. 7. 3. 3. -1. -1. -3. -6.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 7. 3. -8. -23. -34. -47. -56. -64. -70.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 11.9 125.7
** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062017 FERNANDA 07/16/17 06 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 33.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.96 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 21.6 0.0 to 106.7 0.20 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 84.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.62 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.86 999.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.53 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 437.2 735.9 to -82.5 0.36 999.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.4 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 14.3% 20.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 2.7% 4.9% 2.6% 1.5% 0.5% 1.8% 0.2% 0.0%
Bayesian: 1.6% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 6.2% 8.6% 0.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062017 FERNANDA 07/16/17 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##