* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* FERNANDA EP062017 07/16/17 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 115 117 118 116 114 108 92 80 70 58 48 41 34
V (KT) LAND 115 117 118 116 114 108 92 80 70 58 48 41 34
V (KT) LGEM 115 115 112 108 103 91 78 66 56 47 40 33 26
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 4 0 3 5 4 2 10 8 9 11 19 22 32
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 -1 -1 1 7 4 6 3 8 12 16 8
SHEAR DIR 89 224 233 181 191 211 275 286 271 279 270 256 267
SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.3 28.0 27.6 26.9 26.1 25.6 25.2 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.1
POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 148 145 140 132 124 118 114 112 112 112 113
200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.4 -51.8 -52.3 -52.4 -51.8 -52.6 -52.0 -52.5 -52.2 -52.5 -52.5 -53.3
200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 5 5
700-500 MB RH 66 65 62 60 59 59 58 56 53 49 48 51 50
MODEL VTX (KT) 27 26 27 26 27 28 25 25 24 22 21 20 18
850 MB ENV VOR 6 17 19 21 28 36 33 42 42 43 39 36 27
200 MB DIV 86 97 96 48 45 84 42 66 34 -4 -13 -2 -14
700-850 TADV -6 -5 -5 -6 -4 -2 1 7 10 6 2 9 7
LAND (KM) 2080 2137 2199 2245 2291 2364 2217 2061 1903 1727 1535 1367 1198
LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.6 13.0 13.4 13.8 14.6 15.5 16.3 16.8 17.2 17.4 17.5 17.6
LONG(DEG W) 126.9 128.0 129.1 130.2 131.2 132.9 134.3 135.6 137.0 138.6 140.4 142.0 143.6
STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 10 9 8 7 7 8 8 8 8
HEAT CONTENT 27 15 12 11 7 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.6 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -14. -25. -35. -44. -50. -54. -57. -57.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 8. 3.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. 0. 2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 1. -1. -7. -23. -35. -45. -57. -67. -74. -80.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 12.2 126.9
** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062017 FERNANDA 07/16/17 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 32.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.89 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 14.4 0.0 to 106.7 0.13 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.57 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.87 999.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.54 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 553.4 735.9 to -82.5 0.22 999.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.3 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 16.9% 19.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 4.4% 4.3% 2.6% 1.7% 0.7% 1.6% 0.1% 0.0%
Bayesian: 3.5% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 8.3% 8.2% 0.9% 0.6% 0.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062017 FERNANDA 07/16/17 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##