* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* FERNANDA EP062017 07/17/17 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 105 102 101 102 98 92 82 70 60 50 43 38 33
V (KT) LAND 105 102 101 102 98 92 82 70 60 50 43 38 33
V (KT) LGEM 105 100 95 90 84 74 64 55 46 39 34 29 23
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 3 5 5 3 3 5 3 12 11 13 19 28 30
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 0 3 3 5 8 0 4 6 8 10 4
SHEAR DIR 220 189 173 154 126 241 263 249 281 277 253 241 243
SST (C) 28.4 28.1 27.6 27.2 26.8 26.2 25.6 25.2 25.1 24.9 24.9 25.0 25.2
POT. INT. (KT) 149 145 140 136 131 124 118 114 113 111 112 113 115
200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.6 -52.6 -52.5 -51.9 -52.7 -52.1 -52.8 -52.4 -52.6 -52.6 -53.0 -53.8
200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.5
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5
700-500 MB RH 64 62 61 59 60 59 60 58 57 54 53 52 53
MODEL VTX (KT) 25 26 26 28 25 26 26 24 23 21 20 19 17
850 MB ENV VOR 19 33 35 38 37 44 55 60 61 44 45 38 31
200 MB DIV 91 57 62 78 101 41 54 34 8 -13 5 40 19
700-850 TADV -4 -3 -3 -2 0 2 7 9 4 6 11 10 11
LAND (KM) 2181 2220 2253 2279 2308 2290 2142 2005 1854 1671 1456 1252 1052
LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.4 13.8 14.3 14.7 15.5 16.4 16.9 17.1 17.4 17.7 18.0 18.1
LONG(DEG W) 128.8 129.8 130.7 131.5 132.3 133.6 134.8 136.0 137.4 139.1 141.1 143.0 144.9
STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 9 8 7 7 6 8 9 9 10 9
HEAT CONTENT 12 10 8 4 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 543 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.6 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -3. -6. -13. -22. -31. -38. -43. -47. -49. -49.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 9. 9. 6. 2.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13.
PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 0. 1. 1. -1. -2. -5. -6. -7. -8.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -3. -7. -13. -23. -35. -45. -55. -62. -67. -72.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 12.9 128.8
** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062017 FERNANDA 07/17/17 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 35.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.85 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 7.6 0.0 to 106.7 0.07 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 105.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 77.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.59 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.87 999.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 1.4 62.3 to 0.0 0.98 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.69 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 555.4 735.9 to -82.5 0.22 999.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.1 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 8.5% 16.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 2.8% 3.7% 1.8% 1.5% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 3.8% 6.7% 0.6% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062017 FERNANDA 07/17/17 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##