* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* SEVEN EP072017 07/17/17 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 31 32 35 37 39 40 38 35 32 29
V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 31 32 35 37 39 40 38 35 32 29
V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 33 33 32 31 30 28 26 23 19 16
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 17 16 18 17 13 10 8 9 17 23 25 25 21
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -3 0 0 0 -1 -1 0 0 0 1 3
SHEAR DIR 323 317 321 335 324 298 281 196 220 200 199 214 231
SST (C) 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.5 27.2 26.8 26.4 25.7 24.6 23.8 23.8
POT. INT. (KT) 152 153 153 153 154 150 137 133 129 122 110 101 101
200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.7 -53.4 -53.6 -53.7 -53.2 -53.6 -53.1 -53.4 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.5
200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 7 8 8 7 6 4 4 3 2
700-500 MB RH 72 68 66 68 71 67 69 65 65 60 59 57 58
MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -29 -27 -23 -22 -18 0 -8 -4 14 22 17 3 -8
200 MB DIV 21 18 21 26 19 25 21 7 15 26 -11 -12 -4
700-850 TADV 0 1 -1 -2 1 0 1 5 8 7 9 10 6
LAND (KM) 473 485 510 546 571 698 804 885 1028 1175 1337 1472 1608
LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.4 14.6 14.8 15.1 15.7 16.2 17.0 17.8 18.7 19.3 20.1 20.8
LONG(DEG W) 104.8 105.4 106.2 107.0 108.0 110.3 112.9 115.7 118.8 121.6 124.3 126.8 128.9
STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 8 9 11 12 14 14 15 14 13 11 10
HEAT CONTENT 28 27 27 26 23 18 8 1 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 610 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.9 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.2
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 19. 23. 25. 26. 25. 23.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -4. -8. -10. -10.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8.
PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 9. 10. 8. 5. 2. -1.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.2 104.8
** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072017 SEVEN 07/17/17 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 1.5
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.76 1.8
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.16 0.5
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 26.2 0.0 to 106.7 0.25 0.6
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.5
D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.29 0.6
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.19 0.4
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.6
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.44 0.1
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 72.2 735.9 to -82.5 0.81 0.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.4 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.5 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.6 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 5.5%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 2.1% 5.8% 5.5% 4.3% 0.0% 9.4% 10.5% 8.2%
Logistic: 0.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.6% 1.0% 1.2%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.5%
Consensus: 0.8% 2.2% 1.9% 1.5% 0.0% 3.3% 3.9% 3.3%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072017 SEVEN 07/17/17 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##