* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* FERNANDA EP062017 07/17/17 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 110 109 107 101 95 82 68 59 47 42 35 30 26
V (KT) LAND 110 109 107 101 95 82 68 59 47 42 35 30 26
V (KT) LGEM 110 107 100 92 83 69 57 48 41 36 30 24 20
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 6 5 3 5 6 7 8 9 13 15 22 25 24
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 7 7 8 6 0 5 4 10 7 5 3
SHEAR DIR 195 181 197 212 220 197 223 251 261 229 233 226 230
SST (C) 27.8 27.5 27.1 26.8 26.5 26.0 25.5 25.1 25.0 25.0 25.1 25.2 25.4
POT. INT. (KT) 141 138 134 131 127 122 117 113 112 112 113 115 117
200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.1 -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -52.4 -52.6 -52.1 -52.4 -52.2 -52.8 -53.4 -54.2
200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.2
TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 4 4 4 5 6 6
700-500 MB RH 60 61 60 59 59 60 57 53 48 49 49 47 44
MODEL VTX (KT) 27 27 26 25 25 24 21 22 19 20 19 17 16
850 MB ENV VOR 36 38 39 40 47 71 75 76 55 67 45 40 25
200 MB DIV 72 92 49 20 30 85 42 30 17 28 16 16 4
700-850 TADV 0 3 5 4 6 8 5 3 5 9 6 8 10
LAND (KM) 2283 2303 2325 2338 2264 2131 1971 1796 1606 1414 1252 1051 830
LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.4 14.8 15.3 15.7 16.4 17.0 17.4 17.5 17.7 18.0 18.2 18.3
LONG(DEG W) 131.2 131.9 132.6 133.2 133.8 134.9 136.3 137.9 139.7 141.5 143.0 144.9 147.0
STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 7 7 6 8 8 9 8 8 10 9
HEAT CONTENT 5 3 4 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 532 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.6 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -6. -9. -18. -28. -37. -44. -49. -53. -54. -55.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 5. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -12. -12. -12.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -2. -2. -4. -7. -6. -10. -9. -10. -11. -12.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -9. -15. -28. -42. -51. -63. -68. -75. -80. -84.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 13.9 131.2
** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062017 FERNANDA 07/17/17 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 24.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.80 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 3.8 0.0 to 106.7 0.04 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 110.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.30 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.45 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.85 999.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 8.3 62.3 to 0.0 0.87 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.67 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 631.0 735.9 to -82.5 0.13 999.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 13.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 6.5% 3.1% 1.6% 1.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 7.0% 1.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062017 FERNANDA 07/17/17 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##