* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* SEVEN EP072017 07/18/17 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 32 33 36 41 43 46 46 44 42 40
V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 32 33 36 41 43 46 46 44 42 40
V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 28 26 23
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 14 15 13 11 11 6 4 5 8 14 16 18 16
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 0 0 -2 0 -4 0 -1 -2 0 -2 -2
SHEAR DIR 316 327 319 312 313 330 288 242 225 222 239 238 248
SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.5 27.7 27.0 27.3 27.1 26.8 26.4 26.0 25.9
POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 152 151 149 142 134 138 136 133 128 123 122
200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.6 -53.6 -53.5 -53.2 -53.4 -53.0 -53.2 -53.1 -53.4 -53.3 -53.7 -53.5
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2
TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 5
700-500 MB RH 67 69 73 72 71 73 70 72 71 69 63 63 59
MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 9 10 9 9 9 9 8 8
850 MB ENV VOR -26 -18 -12 -7 -5 -4 -2 8 12 14 16 12 3
200 MB DIV 30 29 21 19 11 11 17 36 35 6 17 -2 10
700-850 TADV -1 -2 1 2 0 2 1 4 5 4 7 9 7
LAND (KM) 565 601 626 669 721 852 898 1001 1134 1282 1468 1647 1795
LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.4 14.5 14.7 14.8 15.3 15.8 16.2 16.6 16.9 17.1 17.1 17.0
LONG(DEG W) 106.5 107.3 108.0 108.9 109.8 111.8 114.1 116.4 118.8 121.3 123.8 126.1 128.0
STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 9 9 11 11 12 12 12 11 10 9
HEAT CONTENT 29 28 26 23 21 12 9 8 13 1 7 1 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 604 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.5 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.8
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 18. 22. 25. 26. 26. 25.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. -12. -12.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 13. 16. 16. 14. 12. 10.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.2 106.5
** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072017 SEVEN 07/18/17 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.9
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.74 2.6
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.34 1.7
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 25.4 0.0 to 106.7 0.24 0.9
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.8
D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.29 0.9
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.46 1.6
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -1.9 0.33 0.1
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 77.2 735.9 to -82.5 0.80 0.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.4 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 0.8 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.9 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 5.5%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 2.8% 12.5% 9.5% 7.3% 0.0% 11.5% 12.5% 10.1%
Logistic: 0.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.7% 2.7%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.4% 0.2%
Consensus: 1.0% 4.6% 3.3% 2.4% 0.0% 4.2% 4.9% 4.3%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072017 SEVEN 07/18/17 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##