* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* SEVEN EP072017 07/18/17 06 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 32 32 37 41 46 51 51 49 47 45
V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 32 32 37 41 46 51 51 49 47 45
V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 30 30 30 31 32 33 34 33 30 28
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 15 12 10 10 10 5 3 4 9 13 11 9 8
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -2 -3 -2 -4 -1 -1 -5 1 0 -3 -1
SHEAR DIR 332 322 307 300 313 311 263 200 169 218 199 216 194
SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.3 27.1 27.0 27.4 27.0 26.8 26.5 26.2 26.0
POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 151 150 147 135 134 139 135 132 129 126 124
200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.6 -53.5 -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 -53.0 -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 -53.0 -53.1 -53.0
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.3 0.3
TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 4
700-500 MB RH 71 74 73 71 71 71 71 71 70 63 61 57 52
MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 12 12 11 12 12 13 14 15 13 13 12
850 MB ENV VOR -13 -9 0 -1 2 4 14 21 40 37 46 36 52
200 MB DIV 31 22 26 18 32 17 36 54 39 15 19 8 6
700-850 TADV -3 0 1 0 -1 1 -1 4 5 8 7 5 6
LAND (KM) 585 612 649 702 764 876 926 1051 1190 1359 1565 1759 1950
LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.7 14.8 15.0 15.1 15.4 15.9 16.3 16.7 16.9 16.8 16.7 16.6
LONG(DEG W) 107.2 108.0 108.8 109.7 110.6 112.6 114.8 117.2 119.8 122.3 124.7 127.2 129.6
STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 9 9 10 11 12 13 11 12 11 12
HEAT CONTENT 27 25 22 20 18 10 10 14 7 6 1 2 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 625 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.8 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 3.6
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 12. 18. 22. 25. 26. 26. 25.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 4. 5.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 5. 4. 2.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0.
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TOTAL CHANGE -0. 1. 2. 2. 7. 11. 16. 21. 21. 19. 17. 15.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.5 107.2
** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072017 SEVEN 07/18/17 06 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.8
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.74 2.5
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.43 2.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 22.4 0.0 to 106.7 0.21 0.8
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.7
D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.31 1.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.28 0.9
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.9
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.52 0.2
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 77.2 735.9 to -82.5 0.80 0.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.7 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.9 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 5.5%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 2.2% 10.3% 8.9% 7.1% 0.0% 11.1% 12.3% 9.4%
Logistic: 0.3% 0.9% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 1.3% 0.4% 0.6%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 0.8% 4.0% 3.1% 2.5% 0.0% 4.2% 4.2% 3.4%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072017 SEVEN 07/18/17 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##