* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* FERNANDA EP062017 07/18/17 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 85 77 72 64 60 50 43 34 30 26 21 18 DIS
V (KT) LAND 85 77 72 64 60 50 43 34 30 26 21 18 DIS
V (KT) LGEM 85 76 68 61 55 45 39 33 28 23 19 16 DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 9 8 5 8 9 7 13 13 23 23 31 28 29
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 8 10 5 1 2 2 8 8 5 4 6 5
SHEAR DIR 255 249 231 227 243 280 266 250 243 231 233 232 239
SST (C) 26.7 26.4 26.1 25.9 25.6 25.2 24.9 24.8 24.8 25.0 25.2 25.4 25.7
POT. INT. (KT) 130 126 123 121 118 114 111 110 110 112 115 117 120
200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.7 -52.3 -52.6 -52.8 -52.5 -52.4 -52.1 -52.3 -52.7 -53.4 -54.0 -54.7
200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.1 0.5 -0.1
TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 4 4 3 4 3 4 4 5 6 6 7
700-500 MB RH 61 60 59 58 59 55 54 51 49 46 44 41 39
MODEL VTX (KT) 26 23 24 21 23 21 22 19 19 18 17 15 13
850 MB ENV VOR 31 39 49 64 66 73 49 33 19 14 16 3 6
200 MB DIV 33 31 36 54 42 19 -3 -6 14 12 6 18 16
700-850 TADV 11 6 7 8 7 2 0 0 2 4 0 2 1
LAND (KM) 2314 2286 2217 2146 2076 1922 1757 1594 1431 1261 1090 879 649
LAT (DEG N) 15.4 15.9 16.3 16.7 17.0 17.4 17.8 18.2 18.6 18.9 19.3 19.6 19.8
LONG(DEG W) 133.0 133.5 134.1 134.7 135.3 136.7 138.2 139.7 141.2 142.8 144.4 146.4 148.6
STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 9 10 10
HEAT CONTENT 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 6
T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 553 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.3 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -11. -17. -22. -27. -29. -31. -32. -32.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -2. -5. -9.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11.
PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -4. -3. -5. -6. -9. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -8. -13. -21. -25. -35. -42. -51. -55. -59. -64. -67. -71.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 15.4 133.0
** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062017 FERNANDA 07/18/17 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 38.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.64 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 1.6 0.0 to 106.7 0.01 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.38 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.77 999.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 29.4 62.3 to 0.0 0.53 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.68 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 526.2 735.9 to -82.5 0.26 999.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.8 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.7 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 6.3% 11.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 2.2% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062017 FERNANDA 07/18/17 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##