* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* GREG EP072017 07/18/17 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 41 44 47 51 54 55 51 47 43 41 38
V (KT) LAND 35 39 41 44 47 51 54 55 51 47 43 41 38
V (KT) LGEM 35 37 39 41 42 43 44 44 42 38 34 30 26
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 10 9 7 5 4 3 2 9 17 15 16 14 16
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 3 1 0 0 2 -4 2 -3 -1 1 2
SHEAR DIR 307 307 329 313 313 342 230 220 235 222 238 230 241
SST (C) 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.0 27.5 27.0 27.5 27.0 26.6 26.4 26.4 26.2 25.9
POT. INT. (KT) 152 150 148 144 139 134 140 135 130 128 128 126 122
200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 -53.3 -53.1 -53.4 -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 -53.7 -53.5 -53.4
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2
TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 5 6 6 6
700-500 MB RH 71 69 70 73 72 72 74 73 64 59 55 51 46
MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 10 10 10 10 9 8 8 7 6 6 4
850 MB ENV VOR -9 -10 -5 0 2 15 25 13 12 11 5 20 16
200 MB DIV 14 1 13 9 14 23 43 21 5 -1 0 4 2
700-850 TADV 3 0 -1 3 4 0 3 4 13 8 5 9 10
LAND (KM) 647 696 753 821 891 947 1039 1150 1290 1502 1725 1895 2040
LAT (DEG N) 14.6 14.7 14.8 15.0 15.1 15.4 16.0 16.7 17.2 17.1 16.5 16.4 16.7
LONG(DEG W) 108.5 109.4 110.2 111.2 112.1 114.3 116.7 119.2 121.7 124.2 126.5 128.7 130.8
STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 9 10 11 13 12 12 12 11 11 10
HEAT CONTENT 26 23 20 19 17 13 21 11 2 2 5 2 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 567 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 11.1
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 15. 18. 20. 21. 21. 20.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 6. 4. 2. 2. 2.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13.
PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0.
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TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 9. 12. 16. 19. 20. 16. 12. 8. 6. 3.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 14.6 108.5
** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072017 GREG 07/18/17 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.6
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.65 3.6
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.68 5.1
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 21.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.20 1.2
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.23 1.2
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.89 4.8
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.5
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.43 0.3
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 107.8 735.9 to -82.5 0.77 0.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 1.8 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.0 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 15.6% 28.2% 20.3% 16.3% 15.8% 20.9% 19.2% 10.9%
Logistic: 25.8% 48.9% 27.8% 26.8% 20.4% 37.2% 25.0% 17.6%
Bayesian: 1.3% 46.9% 17.6% 8.3% 1.2% 8.8% 9.6% 0.4%
Consensus: 14.3% 41.3% 21.9% 17.1% 12.4% 22.3% 18.0% 9.6%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072017 GREG 07/18/17 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##