* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* DON AL052017 07/19/17 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 36 39 41 45 47 51 53 55 58 61 64
V (KT) LAND 35 35 36 39 41 45 47 51 53 55 58 61 64
V (KT) LGEM 35 35 35 36 36 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 17 19 21 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -1 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 243 260 278 278 272 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 28.4 27.9 27.5 27.6 27.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 146 139 134 135 132 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
ADJ. POT. INT. 158 148 142 144 139 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.7 -53.9 -53.6 -53.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 12 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 55 57 58 57 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 10 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 24 22 23 36 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 15 41 34 51 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV 0 0 -6 -6 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 127 144 172 116 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 11.9 12.0 12.1 12.2 12.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 61.4 63.5 65.7 67.9 70.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 21 21 22 22 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 20 20 18 19 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 22 CX,CY: -21/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 707 (MEAN=618)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 4.2
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 16. 20. 23. 26. 28. 30.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -15.
PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 4. 6. 10. 12. 16. 18. 20. 23. 26. 29.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 11.9 61.4
** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052017 DON 07/19/17 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.1
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.8 30.1 to 2.9 0.41 1.1
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 16.6 0.0 to 156.2 0.11 0.3
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.4 to -3.0 0.29 0.8
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.68 2.0
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.35 0.5
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.3 28.4 to 139.6 0.75 1.4
D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.32 0.3
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 207.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.73 0.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 5.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times sample mean (11.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 4.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 5.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 4.6% 14.1% 10.6% 7.0% 5.5% 10.2% 9.0% 999.0%
Logistic: 2.9% 11.1% 5.5% 3.0% 2.0% 3.6% 1.5% 999.0%
Bayesian: 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 999.0%
Consensus: 2.6% 8.5% 5.4% 3.3% 2.5% 4.6% 3.5% 999.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052017 DON 07/19/17 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052017 DON 07/19/2017 00 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 35 36 39 41 45 47 51 53 55 58 61 64
18HR AGO 35 34 35 38 40 44 46 50 52 54 57 60 63
12HR AGO 35 32 31 34 36 40 42 46 48 50 53 56 59
6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 31 33 37 39 41 44 47 50
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT