* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* FERNANDA EP062017 07/19/17 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 85 83 79 75 70 59 47 40 33 26 23 22 21
V (KT) LAND 85 83 79 75 70 59 47 40 33 26 23 22 21
V (KT) LGEM 85 81 76 69 63 52 43 36 30 25 21 19 18
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 6 7 8 10 10 17 17 25 28 31 26 26 22
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 7 2 1 1 0 1 2 0 2 0 3 3
SHEAR DIR 271 287 280 271 264 262 254 246 233 234 226 223 234
SST (C) 26.1 25.9 25.6 25.4 25.1 24.8 24.7 24.8 25.1 25.3 25.6 25.8 26.2
POT. INT. (KT) 123 121 118 116 113 110 109 111 114 116 119 121 126
200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.5 -52.8 -52.9 -52.5 -52.2 -51.9 -52.1 -52.5 -53.1 -53.1 -53.9 -54.2
200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.0 0.7 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 5 5 6 7 7
700-500 MB RH 61 63 63 62 62 58 53 51 47 42 38 37 35
MODEL VTX (KT) 24 25 21 23 22 21 20 20 18 17 17 18 19
850 MB ENV VOR 51 65 60 64 70 47 33 24 17 16 15 23 21
200 MB DIV 38 46 44 19 9 9 6 7 0 18 41 -1 10
700-850 TADV 6 7 5 6 5 3 6 5 4 1 7 2 5
LAND (KM) 2217 2157 2097 2012 1928 1753 1581 1388 1174 973 787 583 362
LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.7 17.0 17.3 17.6 18.1 18.4 18.7 19.2 19.7 20.2 20.4 20.5
LONG(DEG W) 134.1 134.6 135.1 135.8 136.6 138.2 139.8 141.6 143.6 145.5 147.3 149.3 151.5
STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 10 10
HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 5
T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 568 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -7. -13. -19. -24. -28. -30. -31. -32. -32.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -11. -13.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -8.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 7. 6. 6.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6.
700-500 MB RH -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -2. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -8. -7. -5.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -2. -6. -10. -15. -26. -37. -45. -52. -59. -62. -63. -64.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 16.3 134.1
** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062017 FERNANDA 07/19/17 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 33.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.60 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.00 0.0
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.34 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.89 999.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 39.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.37 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.52 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 490.4 735.9 to -82.5 0.30 999.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.1 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 16.0% 16.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 5.7% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062017 FERNANDA 07/19/17 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##