* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* GREG EP072017 07/19/17 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 52 56 58 60 62 58 52 44 36 31 28
V (KT) LAND 45 49 52 56 58 60 62 58 52 44 36 31 28
V (KT) LGEM 45 49 52 54 56 56 56 53 47 40 33 29 25
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 9 6 5 5 5 3 12 21 16 19 19 14 13
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 1 0 -2 -2 0 0 -2 1 -3 -4 -2 -2
SHEAR DIR 281 302 300 270 255 198 195 220 230 242 253 251 250
SST (C) 28.6 28.3 27.8 27.2 27.0 27.4 27.2 26.6 26.0 25.5 25.7 25.9 26.2
POT. INT. (KT) 150 147 142 136 134 139 137 131 124 119 121 122 125
200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.3 -53.4 -53.2 -52.8 -53.1 -52.9 -53.3 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 -53.2
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2
TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 4 4 5 5 6
700-500 MB RH 72 72 74 73 73 74 73 67 59 55 47 44 40
MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 11 13 13 13 13 12 11 10 7 6 5
850 MB ENV VOR -7 1 10 14 18 26 31 38 42 43 44 51 33
200 MB DIV 24 21 16 11 16 37 29 27 15 9 -11 -4 -9
700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 1 0 0 8 12 10 2 5 2 6
LAND (KM) 722 788 863 905 919 1002 1137 1266 1461 1642 1850 2048 2233
LAT (DEG N) 14.6 14.8 14.9 15.2 15.4 15.8 16.5 17.2 17.6 17.6 17.2 16.7 16.2
LONG(DEG W) 109.6 110.6 111.6 112.7 113.7 115.9 118.7 121.4 124.1 126.6 128.9 130.9 132.7
STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 10 10 12 14 13 12 11 11 9 9
HEAT CONTENT 22 20 19 15 12 19 16 2 1 0 0 0 8
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 570 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 11.6
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 11. 11.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 5. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -13. -14. -15.
PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. 2. 1. 2. 1. -0. -2. -5. -6. -7.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0.
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TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 11. 13. 15. 17. 13. 7. -1. -9. -14. -17.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 14.6 109.6
** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072017 GREG 07/19/17 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.5
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.52 3.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.74 5.9
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 17.6 0.0 to 106.7 0.16 1.0
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 3.8
D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.27 1.4
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 4.1
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.6
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.37 0.2
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 127.4 735.9 to -82.5 0.74 0.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 1.9 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.1 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.2 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 5.5%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 19.0% 28.8% 22.3% 18.6% 16.6% 24.0% 20.2% 9.5%
Logistic: 18.6% 29.8% 17.1% 16.1% 13.2% 15.9% 11.1% 2.6%
Bayesian: 1.1% 39.0% 14.5% 5.9% 2.3% 7.3% 7.1% 0.1%
Consensus: 12.9% 32.6% 18.0% 13.6% 10.7% 15.7% 12.8% 4.1%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072017 GREG 07/19/17 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##