* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* FERNANDA EP062017 07/19/17 06 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 80 75 70 64 60 49 39 30 25 21 18 19 19
V (KT) LAND 80 75 70 64 60 49 39 30 25 21 18 19 19
V (KT) LGEM 80 74 67 61 56 46 38 32 26 22 20 18 17
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 10 8 10 12 14 18 23 31 32 30 27 23 19
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 1 0 0 1 2 -2 0 0 4 3 2
SHEAR DIR 255 269 261 258 262 245 234 237 223 225 213 212 222
SST (C) 25.8 25.5 25.2 24.9 24.8 24.6 24.7 24.9 25.1 25.4 25.6 25.9 26.2
POT. INT. (KT) 120 117 114 111 110 108 109 111 113 117 119 122 126
200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.9 -53.0 -52.7 -52.6 -52.5 -52.1 -52.3 -52.6 -53.2 -53.3 -54.0 -54.2
200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.5
TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 2 3 2 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7
700-500 MB RH 64 62 62 61 60 55 49 48 44 41 37 36 37
MODEL VTX (KT) 24 20 22 21 22 20 19 17 17 16 16 17 17
850 MB ENV VOR 65 61 66 73 74 43 47 26 25 15 17 17 12
200 MB DIV 37 37 36 36 14 13 8 7 -5 15 27 12 29
700-850 TADV 10 7 6 7 2 4 9 4 4 8 4 9 4
LAND (KM) 2143 2072 2002 1923 1845 1662 1468 1288 1130 955 738 542 367
LAT (DEG N) 16.8 17.2 17.6 17.9 18.2 18.6 19.2 19.6 20.0 20.4 21.0 21.4 21.8
LONG(DEG W) 134.7 135.3 135.9 136.6 137.3 139.0 140.8 142.5 144.0 145.7 147.9 150.0 152.2
STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 8 8 9 8 8 9 11 10 10
HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 6
T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 598 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.8 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -7. -12. -17. -21. -25. -26. -27. -28. -28.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -13. -15. -17.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6.
PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 2. 3.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -2. -1. -4. -6. -9. -9. -9. -9. -7. -7.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -16. -20. -31. -41. -50. -55. -59. -62. -61. -61.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 16.8 134.7
** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062017 FERNANDA 07/19/17 06 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 34.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.46 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.00 0.0
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.34 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.84 999.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 29.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.53 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.57 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 470.0 735.9 to -82.5 0.32 999.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.7 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 8.5% 10.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 2.9% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062017 FERNANDA 07/19/17 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##