* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST          *
                    * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  FERNANDA    EP062017  07/19/17  18 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    70    65    59    53    48    37    27    23    19   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS
V (KT) LAND       70    65    59    53    48    37    27    23    19   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS
V (KT) LGEM       70    64    58    52    47    38    31    25    21    17   DIS   DIS   DIS
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)        10    11    14    18    20    22    26    29    35    32    32    30    25
SHEAR ADJ (KT)     1     3     1     1     1     3     1     5     1     5     6     5     6
SHEAR DIR        273   258   248   247   239   234   230   210   217   208   216   232   241
SST (C)         25.2  25.0  24.8  24.6  24.6  24.7  24.9  25.1  25.3  25.6  26.0  26.3  26.4
POT. INT. (KT)   114   112   110   108   108   109   111   113   116   120   124   126   127
200 MB T (C)   -53.1 -52.5 -52.5 -52.8 -52.6 -52.2 -52.6 -52.7 -53.0 -53.5 -54.4 -55.1 -55.6
200 MB VXT (C)   0.7   0.6   0.5   0.5   0.6   0.8   1.1   1.1   1.0   0.6   0.3   0.2  -0.2
TH_E DEV (C)       2     2     2     2     2     3     3     5     5     6     6     8     7
700-500 MB RH     66    63    62    60    58    53    49    44    41    37    38    36    35
MODEL VTX (KT)    22    21    20    19    20    17    15    15    14    13    11     8     7
850 MB ENV VOR    73    79    72    57    46    35    21    25    12     5   -11   -24   -32
200 MB DIV        13    20     4    -4     1     2     2    12    -1    20     5     2     6
700-850 TADV       7     7     7     8     8     9     4     4     3     4     6     4    -6
LAND (KM)       2004  1919  1835  1753  1671  1489  1319  1152   980   771   550   412   288
LAT (DEG N)     17.5  17.9  18.2  18.5  18.7  19.2  19.7  20.2  20.8  21.5  22.4  22.9  23.0
LONG(DEG W)    135.9 136.7 137.4 138.2 138.9 140.6 142.2 143.8 145.5 147.7 150.5 152.7 154.5
STM SPEED (KT)     8     8     8     8     8     8     8     8    10    12    12     9     8
HEAT CONTENT       0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     1

  FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/  7      CX,CY:  -5/  4
  T-12 MAX WIND:  80            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  571  (MEAN=550)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:   7.8 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  70.0 (MEAN=65.0)
  PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR):            0.0

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -2.
  SST POTENTIAL         -1.  -2.  -3.  -5.  -9. -12. -15. -17. -17. -17. -18. -18.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG    -0.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -5.  -7. -10. -13. -17. -20. -22. -24.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ    -0.  -0.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR    -0.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -4.  -4.  -5.  -5.  -5.  -5.  -4.  -3.
  PERSISTENCE           -3.  -4.  -5.  -5.  -4.  -4.  -3.  -1.  -1.  -0.   1.   3.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.  -0.   0.   0.   2.   3.   6.   8.   9.   9.   8.   8.
  THETA_E EXCESS        -0.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -5.  -5.  -6.  -6.  -7.  -7.  -6.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -6.
  MODEL VTX TENDENCY    -0.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -5.  -8.  -9. -10. -11. -13. -15. -15.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.   0.   0.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE     -0.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -2.  -2.
  850-700 T ADVEC        0.   0.  -0.  -0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   3.   4.   4.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION    -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.   0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  GOES PREDICTORS        0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT    -0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE          -5. -11. -17. -22. -33. -43. -47. -51. -57. -62. -65. -65.

                CURRENT MAX WIND (KT):   70. LAT, LON:   17.5   135.9

      ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062017 FERNANDA   07/19/17  18 UTC **
 (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
 
     Predictor             Value   RI Predictor Range  Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):   -10.0     -22.0  to   44.0       0.18         999.0
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   :    40.4      40.5  to  149.3       0.00           0.0
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :    14.8      18.9  to    1.4       0.23         999.0
 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) :     0.0       0.0  to  106.7       0.00           0.0
 MAXIMUM WIND (kt)     :    70.0      22.5  to  132.0       0.83         999.0
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :     6.8     -33.0  to  156.2       0.21         999.0
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :     7.8      37.8  to    2.1       0.84         999.0
 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm:    17.5      62.3  to    0.0       0.72         999.0
 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP  :    -0.2       2.2  to   -1.9       0.58         999.0
 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2):   411.4     735.9  to  -82.5       0.40         999.0
 
 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold=   7% is   0.9 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   7% is   0.5 times sample mean (15.3%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean (10.4%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%)
    
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  RI (kt / h)  | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48  |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   SHIPS-RII:     7.3%    7.3%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%
    Logistic:     0.1%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%
    Bayesian:     0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%
   Consensus:     2.5%    2.4%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062017 FERNANDA   07/19/17  18 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##