* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* GREG EP072017 07/20/17 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 47 51 56 61 65 65 65 59 60 60 57
V (KT) LAND 40 43 47 51 56 61 65 65 65 59 60 60 57
V (KT) LGEM 40 41 43 46 49 53 55 55 52 49 49 52 53
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 4 6 9 9 12 7 11 15 5 2 4 3 5
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -1 -1 -3 -2 0 -2 -2 -2 -2 0 1
SHEAR DIR 118 105 97 112 128 188 196 208 174 360 62 21 52
SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.9 28.0 27.7 27.2 27.1 26.9 26.6 26.5 26.5 26.2
POT. INT. (KT) 141 141 141 144 145 142 137 136 134 130 129 129 126
200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.1 -53.4 -53.2 -52.5 -52.8 -52.0 -52.3 -51.9 -51.9 -51.6 -52.0 -51.6
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.3
TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 4
700-500 MB RH 77 77 77 76 76 71 66 61 56 50 47 45 43
MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 17 19 20 20 22 23 23 20 21 22 20
850 MB ENV VOR 15 26 33 36 42 35 56 73 85 87 78 68 61
200 MB DIV 36 25 31 43 62 28 42 34 62 -16 -3 0 8
700-850 TADV 2 -1 -2 0 1 2 8 5 1 -3 -2 0 2
LAND (KM) 1044 1058 1081 1114 1158 1277 1399 1586 1811 2004 2186 2243 2014
LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.2 14.4 14.7 15.0 15.5 15.9 16.0 15.9 15.8 15.8 15.7 15.7
LONG(DEG W) 113.2 114.1 115.0 116.1 117.2 119.5 121.8 124.3 127.0 129.5 131.8 134.0 136.2
STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 11 11 11 12 12 12 12 11 11 11
HEAT CONTENT 15 13 17 23 30 19 5 11 7 2 3 1 1
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 546 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.1 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 14.1
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 15. 17. 17. 17. 16.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. -0.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 9. 10. 6. 7. 7. 4.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0.
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TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 16. 21. 25. 25. 25. 19. 20. 20. 17.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 14.0 113.2
** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072017 GREG 07/20/17 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.8
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.57 2.9
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.61 4.3
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 19.6 0.0 to 106.7 0.18 1.0
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 2.6
D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.38 1.8
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.72 3.7
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.4
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.44 0.3
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 104.0 735.9 to -82.5 0.77 0.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.6 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.7 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 5.5%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 12.2% 24.3% 18.1% 14.5% 13.6% 19.0% 17.3% 10.4%
Logistic: 3.6% 12.6% 5.1% 4.1% 2.2% 6.5% 8.1% 3.6%
Bayesian: 0.1% 3.7% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 0.4% 0.1%
Consensus: 5.3% 13.5% 7.9% 6.3% 5.3% 8.6% 8.6% 4.7%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072017 GREG 07/20/17 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##