* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* EIGHT EP082017 07/20/17 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 25 26 27 31 31 32 33 33 35 36
V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 25 26 27 31 31 32 33 33 35 36
V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 23 22 20 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 15 13 7 11 21 19 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 3 0 -6 -4 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 264 251 219 156 143 146 104 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 140 140 141 142 142 142 142 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 -53.0 -53.0 -52.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.5 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 71 74 73 71 71 70 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 11 11 11 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -27 -3 4 20 30 61 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 7 0 6 14 22 25 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV 1 2 2 2 4 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 1564 1614 1665 1716 1767 1829 1848 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 14.1 13.8 13.4 13.1 12.7 12.3 12.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 122.0 122.3 122.6 122.9 123.2 123.6 123.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 4 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 16 15 15 16 20 26 30 0 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ -1
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 590 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.2
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 20. 25. 28. 30. 31. 30.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -5.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -5.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 10. 11.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.1 122.0
** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP082017 EIGHT 07/20/17 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.5
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.69 1.9
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.31 1.1
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 16.4 0.0 to 106.7 0.15 0.5
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.2
D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.23 0.6
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.57 1.5
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.8
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.50 0.2
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 81.2 735.9 to -82.5 0.80 0.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.6 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.6 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.7 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 9.8% 6.6% 0.0% 0.0% 5.8% 8.3% 0.0%
Logistic: 1.3% 3.5% 1.3% 0.9% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 2.0%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 0.4% 4.6% 2.6% 0.3% 0.2% 2.1% 2.9% 0.7%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082017 EIGHT 07/20/17 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##