* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* FERNANDA EP062017 07/20/17 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 55 48 41 35 29 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LAND 55 48 41 35 29 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LGEM 55 49 44 39 35 29 25 21 18 16 DIS DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 25 27 26 28 29 27 33 33 42 33 29 23 20
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 3 1 4 2 4 2 7 6 3 1
SHEAR DIR 245 246 236 230 231 219 221 212 216 215 235 243 264
SST (C) 24.8 24.7 24.7 24.8 24.9 25.1 25.4 25.6 25.8 26.2 26.4 26.7 26.9
POT. INT. (KT) 111 109 110 111 112 113 116 119 122 126 129 132 134
200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.7 -52.4 -52.4 -52.8 -52.8 -53.7 -53.8 -54.4 -55.1 -55.5 -56.1 -56.4
200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.4 0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.4 -0.3
TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 3 4 4 5 6 6 6 7 8 9 9
700-500 MB RH 61 58 56 53 50 45 40 37 36 35 38 41 44
MODEL VTX (KT) 19 18 17 17 16 15 15 14 11 12 9 7 6
850 MB ENV VOR 65 55 47 44 34 32 26 11 0 -5 -15 -28 -31
200 MB DIV -3 -3 -8 7 28 5 13 8 6 14 12 12 2
700-850 TADV 9 7 7 7 4 0 3 5 6 2 0 -4 -2
LAND (KM) 1700 1608 1515 1413 1311 1130 954 799 645 467 274 195 206
LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.4 18.6 18.9 19.1 19.6 20.3 21.0 21.8 22.3 22.7 23.3 24.0
LONG(DEG W) 138.7 139.5 140.4 141.4 142.3 144.0 145.7 147.3 149.1 151.4 154.3 157.2 160.1
STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 9 9 9 9 8 9 10 12 14 14 13
HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 10 9
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 692 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -3.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -7. -10. -15. -20. -26. -31. -34. -34. -34.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1.
PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. -1. 1. 2.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -10. -9. -12. -13. -13.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. -6. -5. -5. -5.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -7. -14. -20. -26. -33. -38. -42. -50. -51. -55. -54. -52.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 18.1 138.7
** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062017 FERNANDA 07/20/17 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 55.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.14 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.00 0.0
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.20 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.57 999.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 15.9 62.3 to 0.0 0.74 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.80 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 359.8 735.9 to -82.5 0.46 999.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062017 FERNANDA 07/20/17 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##