* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* FERNANDA EP062017 07/20/17 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 50 44 39 34 31 24 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LAND 50 44 39 34 31 24 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LGEM 50 44 39 35 31 26 23 21 19 17 DIS DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 28 25 26 28 28 27 34 35 36 29 25 22 15
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 5 3 0 5 -3 3 3 7 1 0 -2
SHEAR DIR 243 230 224 227 226 212 214 205 214 217 237 242 246
SST (C) 24.8 24.8 24.9 24.9 25.1 25.3 25.5 25.7 26.1 26.3 26.6 27.0 27.2
POT. INT. (KT) 111 111 112 111 113 115 118 120 125 128 131 136 138
200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.4 -52.5 -52.9 -53.0 -53.3 -53.8 -54.1 -54.8 -55.1 -55.2 -55.9 -56.8
200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.1
TH_E DEV (C) 2 3 4 4 5 6 6 7 7 8 9 10 10
700-500 MB RH 57 54 51 49 46 41 38 34 34 35 36 34 37
MODEL VTX (KT) 19 18 18 16 16 15 16 15 16 14 13 9 9
850 MB ENV VOR 56 48 45 33 29 31 26 17 6 -1 3 -20 -29
200 MB DIV -3 -4 22 22 3 19 24 15 6 33 11 -2 7
700-850 TADV 10 10 8 4 3 3 6 7 10 3 3 1 2
LAND (KM) 1575 1472 1370 1278 1186 1005 828 644 471 307 155 111 360
LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.3 18.5 18.8 19.0 19.5 20.1 20.9 21.5 22.1 22.4 23.2 24.3
LONG(DEG W) 139.9 140.9 141.8 142.7 143.5 145.2 146.9 148.8 150.8 153.3 156.2 159.2 162.3
STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 9 8 8 8 10 10 11 13 14 15 15
HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 7 9 7
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 727 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 1.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. -13. -19. -25. -29. -32. -32. -31.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1.
PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 2.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -2. -2. -4. -3. -4. -3. -6. -7. -10. -10.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -10. -10. -11. -11.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -6. -11. -16. -19. -26. -31. -37. -40. -44. -45. -47. -41.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 18.1 139.9
** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062017 FERNANDA 07/20/17 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 61.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.19 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.00 0.0
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.22 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.86 999.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 28.2 62.3 to 0.0 0.55 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.68 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 358.0 735.9 to -82.5 0.46 999.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062017 FERNANDA 07/20/17 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##