* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* GREG EP072017 07/20/17 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 45 51 56 61 66 70 70 69 66 65 60 58 54
V (KT) LAND 45 51 56 61 66 70 70 69 66 65 60 58 54
V (KT) LGEM 45 50 56 61 65 69 67 63 59 57 57 56 53
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 9 11 8 4 5 9 9 9 0 1 4 4 4
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -6 -6 0 1 0 0 -2 0 -1 0 2 -1
SHEAR DIR 94 92 97 178 193 198 207 206 73 4 358 358 339
SST (C) 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.1 27.8 27.5 27.4 27.1 26.5 26.2 26.1 25.9 25.4
POT. INT. (KT) 145 146 146 146 142 139 138 135 129 125 124 122 117
200 MB T (C) -53.4 -52.9 -53.1 -53.4 -53.0 -52.3 -52.3 -52.2 -52.1 -51.8 -52.2 -52.0 -52.3
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 3 4 3
700-500 MB RH 78 77 75 72 69 69 64 59 54 49 46 46 43
MODEL VTX (KT) 15 17 17 19 20 21 20 21 20 20 18 18 17
850 MB ENV VOR 33 39 52 43 41 63 60 72 69 69 57 52 46
200 MB DIV 39 39 35 29 27 43 44 33 10 11 -10 5 0
700-850 TADV -2 -2 -1 1 4 6 6 4 -3 -3 1 6 4
LAND (KM) 1164 1205 1251 1306 1356 1471 1615 1784 1934 2076 2209 2200 1988
LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.3 14.4 14.7 14.9 15.2 15.5 15.8 16.0 16.2 16.3 16.6 17.2
LONG(DEG W) 116.0 116.9 117.8 118.9 119.9 122.0 124.2 126.5 128.8 130.8 132.5 134.2 136.1
STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 10 10 10 11 11 10 9 8 9 9
HEAT CONTENT 19 21 20 19 21 9 10 14 2 4 1 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 568 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 18.3
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. 12. 11.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 10.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3.
PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 7. 8. 6. 6. 4. 4. 2.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0.
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TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 16. 21. 25. 25. 24. 21. 20. 15. 13. 9.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 14.1 116.0
** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072017 GREG 07/20/17 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.5
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.55 3.2
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.67 5.3
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 20.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.19 1.2
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 3.8
D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.35 1.9
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 3.8
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.6
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.51 0.3
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 143.8 735.9 to -82.5 0.72 0.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 1.9 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.1 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.2 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 5.5%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 17.4% 28.8% 22.3% 18.7% 16.6% 23.0% 19.7% 10.3%
Logistic: 13.2% 42.9% 23.6% 17.9% 10.3% 29.0% 19.4% 6.7%
Bayesian: 4.3% 41.0% 15.4% 6.4% 4.6% 4.1% 1.6% 0.0%
Consensus: 11.6% 37.6% 20.4% 14.4% 10.5% 18.7% 13.5% 5.7%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072017 GREG 07/20/17 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##