* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST          *
                    * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  INVEST      EP092017  07/21/17  12 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    30    35    41    46    50    58    66    76    81    84    88    93    92
V (KT) LAND       30    35    41    46    50    58    66    76    81    84    88    93    92
V (KT) LGEM       30    34    39    42    46    52    59    68    78    89   101   109   109
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)         9     6     4     4     4     8     8     6     2     4     2     6    12
SHEAR ADJ (KT)     2     2     2     2     6     0    -1    -3    -5    -8    -3     0     0
SHEAR DIR         20    27    40    40    53    44    29    78   166   147   333    32    35
SST (C)         28.1  28.3  28.3  28.4  28.5  28.7  28.9  29.2  29.4  29.5  29.0  28.8  28.4
POT. INT. (KT)   148   150   148   148   148   149   152   157   160   161   156   153   145
200 MB T (C)   -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 -53.5 -53.6 -53.0 -53.3 -52.4 -53.1 -52.1 -52.1 -51.4 -51.7
200 MB VXT (C)   0.0  -0.1  -0.1  -0.1  -0.2  -0.1   0.0   0.2   0.2   0.2   0.3   0.4   0.5
TH_E DEV (C)       5     6     6     5     5     5     5     7     6     9     7     7     7
700-500 MB RH     73    70    67    67    68    73    77    78    80    76    75    76    80
MODEL VTX (KT)    11    12    12    13    13    13    13    14    15    17    20    24    26
850 MB ENV VOR    49    37    31    28    25    20    11    15    21    28     0     7    -1
200 MB DIV        19     3     0    -2    -5    33    88   132    86    99    60    60    54
700-850 TADV       0     1     0    -2    -2    -2    -3    -1     0     1     0    -2    -2
LAND (KM)        594   653   733   757   771   748   676   540   401   314   413   606   737
LAT (DEG N)      9.0   9.2   9.1   9.0   9.0   9.4  10.2  11.7  13.6  15.3  15.9  15.5  14.9
LONG(DEG W)     93.2  95.0  96.4  97.5  98.3  99.4  99.9 100.4 101.6 103.7 106.5 109.0 110.1
STM SPEED (KT)    18    16    12     9     7     5     6    10    12    14    13    10     3
HEAT CONTENT      15    15    11    11    11    11    12    20    42    25    24    21    20

  FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 18      CX,CY: -17/  3
  T-12 MAX WIND:  20            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  424  (MEAN=550)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:   4.5 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0)
  PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR):           14.4

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -2.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.   0.   1.   2.   7.  13.  19.  24.  28.  29.  30.  30.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     1.   2.   3.   4.   5.   6.   7.   8.   9.  11.  11.  11.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ    -0.  -0.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -0.  -0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     0.   1.   2.   3.   6.   8.  10.  10.   9.   8.   8.   8.
  PERSISTENCE            2.   3.   4.   5.   5.   5.   4.   3.   2.   2.   1.  -0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -1.  -2.  -4.  -5.  -6.  -5.  -5.  -5.
  THETA_E EXCESS        -0.  -0.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -0.  -0.   0.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   3.   4.   4.   6.
  MODEL VTX TENDENCY     0.   1.   1.   2.   3.   3.   4.   5.   8.  11.  15.  15.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE     -0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -1.   0.   1.   2.   2.   2.   1.
  850-700 T ADVEC        0.   0.  -0.  -0.   0.  -0.  -0.  -0.   0.   0.   0.  -0.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   1.   2.   3.   4.   5.   5.   4.   3.   3.   3.   3.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES   -0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -4.  -4.  -4.  -4.  -4.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.   0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  GOES PREDICTORS        2.   4.   5.   6.   6.   6.   5.   3.   2.   0.   0.   0.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT    -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -0.   0.   0.   0.  -0.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           5.  11.  16.  20.  28.  36.  46.  51.  54.  58.  63.  62.

                CURRENT MAX WIND (KT):   30. LAT, LON:    9.0    93.2

      ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092017 INVEST     07/21/17  12 UTC **
 (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
 
     Predictor             Value   RI Predictor Range  Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):    10.0     -22.0  to   44.0       0.48           4.4
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   :   118.5      40.5  to  149.3       0.72           4.1
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :     5.4      18.9  to    1.4       0.77           6.0
 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) :    12.6       0.0  to  106.7       0.12           0.7
 MAXIMUM WIND (kt)     :    30.0      22.5  to  132.0       0.21           1.2
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :     3.0     -33.0  to  156.2       0.19           1.0
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :     4.5      37.8  to    2.1       0.93           5.2
 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm:     0.0      62.3  to    0.0       1.00          -1.6
 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP  :     0.1       2.2  to   -1.9       0.52           0.3
 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2):    59.6     735.9  to  -82.5       0.83           0.0
 
 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold=  18% is   2.4 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  30% is   2.0 times sample mean (15.3%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  21% is   2.1 times sample mean (10.4%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  17% is   2.3 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold=  21% is   2.6 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold=  19% is   2.5 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold=  20% is   3.6 times sample mean ( 5.5%)
    
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  RI (kt / h)  | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48  |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   SHIPS-RII:    18.2%   30.3%   21.4%   17.3%    0.0%   20.9%   18.9%   19.9%
    Logistic:    61.2%   93.7%   85.7%   64.2%   49.2%   78.1%   67.7%   70.2%
    Bayesian:     3.0%   56.5%   23.7%   13.0%    7.2%    9.8%    2.3%    0.4%
   Consensus:    27.5%   60.2%   43.6%   31.5%   18.8%   36.3%   29.6%   30.2%

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092017 INVEST     07/21/17  12 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##