* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* FERNANDA EP062017 07/21/17 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 35 31 29 27 26 21 18 17 21 20 18 18 19
V (KT) LAND 35 31 29 27 26 21 18 17 21 20 18 18 19
V (KT) LGEM 35 31 28 25 23 20 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 28 24 25 29 32 36 29 21 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 4 2 0 -1 7 8 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 230 220 212 215 213 213 218 234 255 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 25.1 25.2 25.3 25.4 25.5 25.8 26.2 26.5 26.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 113 114 115 117 118 121 126 130 133 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.6 -53.8 -54.1 -54.1 -53.9 -54.7 -55.1 -55.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 47 45 42 41 39 37 37 35 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 14 14 15 13 14 13 15 LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 20 19 17 13 11 1 2 -15 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 14 10 18 24 29 -10 10 37 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV 6 9 8 8 7 6 3 4 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 1149 1057 965 869 774 569 363 199 114 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 18.6 18.9 19.1 19.4 19.6 20.2 20.8 21.5 22.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 143.9 144.8 145.6 146.5 147.4 149.4 151.6 154.2 157.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 9 9 10 12 13 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 8 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 694 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 15. 17. 17. 16.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -2. -6. -11. -17. -22. -28. -32. -32. -32.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3.
PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -2. -2. 0. 2.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 10. 10. 10.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 1. -1. 0. -1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -8. -8. -9. -9.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -4. -6. -8. -9. -14. -17. -18. -14. -15. -17. -17. -16.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 18.6 143.9
** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062017 FERNANDA 07/21/17 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.37 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.00 0.0
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.27 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.65 999.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 41.2 62.3 to 0.0 0.34 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.71 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 289.4 735.9 to -82.5 0.55 999.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062017 FERNANDA 07/21/17 18 UTC ##