* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* GREG EP072017 07/21/17 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 50 49 48 48 47 44 43 41 39 36 32 28 24
V (KT) LAND 50 49 48 48 47 44 43 41 39 36 32 28 24
V (KT) LGEM 50 51 51 50 48 45 41 38 37 36 34 32 29
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 7 7 7 9 9 7 7 6 4 3 6 11 13
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -2 -2 -3 -3 0 1 0 -1 -4 -4
SHEAR DIR 235 228 232 251 258 259 319 350 348 275 253 223 237
SST (C) 27.8 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.2 26.8 26.6 26.3 26.1 25.5 25.0 24.6
POT. INT. (KT) 143 140 139 139 139 136 131 129 125 124 117 111 107
200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.6 -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 -52.3 -52.7 -52.2 -52.5
200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.4
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
700-500 MB RH 68 67 66 64 61 57 56 51 45 40 37 36 32
MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 17 17 18 17 18 17 16 15 13 13 12
850 MB ENV VOR 32 35 43 43 40 50 39 40 24 30 30 20 7
200 MB DIV 13 -2 11 26 33 35 26 14 12 -10 10 2 6
700-850 TADV -2 -2 -3 -3 -1 -1 -2 -5 0 0 3 2 4
LAND (KM) 1384 1435 1492 1563 1638 1822 1974 2097 2188 2277 2074 1935 1821
LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.0 15.2 15.3 15.4 15.6 15.6 15.7 16.0 16.4 17.1 17.8 18.5
LONG(DEG W) 120.2 121.3 122.3 123.4 124.4 126.8 128.9 130.6 132.0 133.5 135.3 136.5 137.5
STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 11 11 9 7 7 8 8 6 6
HEAT CONTENT 20 12 8 9 10 12 7 3 3 1 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 549 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.7 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 3.9
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -12. -12. -12.
PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -4. -4.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -4. -4. -4.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -7. -9. -11. -14. -18. -22. -26.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 14.8 120.2
** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072017 GREG 07/21/17 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.2
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.46 2.2
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.62 4.1
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 11.8 0.0 to 106.7 0.11 0.6
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 3.9
D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.26 1.2
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.37 1.8
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.4
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.84 0.5
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 258.4 735.9 to -82.5 0.58 0.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.2 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 5.5%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 10.8% 18.7% 16.1% 13.5% 0.0% 18.7% 15.2% 6.3%
Logistic: 0.7% 1.2% 0.6% 0.5% 0.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 3.8% 6.8% 5.6% 4.7% 0.1% 6.4% 5.1% 2.1%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072017 GREG 07/21/17 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##