* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* GREG EP072017 07/22/17 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 42 40 41 39 40 36 34 28 23 19 16
V (KT) LAND 45 44 42 40 41 39 40 36 34 28 23 19 16
V (KT) LGEM 45 44 43 42 41 38 35 33 31 28 25 23 20
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 10 9 10 7 3 2 5 1 5 13 17 18 22
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 0 1 0 -3 2 0 2 3 0 -3 0 -2
SHEAR DIR 233 224 218 233 263 296 298 237 230 261 287 286 288
SST (C) 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.2 27.0 26.9 26.7 26.2 25.7 25.1 24.9 24.9
POT. INT. (KT) 141 141 140 140 136 134 132 129 124 119 112 110 109
200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.3 -52.1 -52.2 -52.3 -52.0 -52.7 -52.6 -52.8 -52.3 -52.5 -52.2 -52.1
200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2
TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 5 4 4 4 4 4
700-500 MB RH 62 60 56 54 54 53 50 45 43 43 36 34 35
MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 19 18 19 17 18 16 16 14 13 13 13
850 MB ENV VOR 41 46 44 46 45 42 36 30 37 39 35 24 28
200 MB DIV 26 41 33 26 18 34 35 2 -9 12 -4 -3 -7
700-850 TADV -2 1 -2 -4 -4 -4 -3 0 2 4 1 3 0
LAND (KM) 1598 1681 1769 1876 1969 2143 2286 2264 2113 1970 1836 1724 1630
LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.2 15.3 15.3 15.2 15.1 15.1 15.3 15.9 16.6 17.5 17.9 17.9
LONG(DEG W) 123.6 124.8 125.9 127.2 128.4 130.6 132.4 133.9 135.2 136.4 137.5 138.5 139.4
STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 12 12 11 10 8 7 7 7 6 5 4
HEAT CONTENT 7 9 13 11 8 1 2 2 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 547 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.8 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 2.5
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 11. 10. 9.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 8. 6. 4. 3.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. -15. -15.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -0. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -7.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -4. -4. -6. -5. -9. -11. -17. -22. -26. -29.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 15.1 123.6
** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072017 GREG 07/22/17 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.4
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.50 2.2
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.64 3.9
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 9.6 0.0 to 106.7 0.09 0.4
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 2.9
D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.33 1.3
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.34 1.5
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.2
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.88 0.4
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 297.2 735.9 to -82.5 0.54 0.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.7 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.1 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 5.5%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 5.6% 16.2% 14.0% 11.5% 0.0% 17.3% 16.0% 7.0%
Logistic: 0.8% 2.8% 1.4% 0.5% 0.2% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 2.1% 6.3% 5.1% 4.0% 0.1% 6.0% 5.5% 2.4%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072017 GREG 07/22/17 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##