* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* NINE EP092017 07/22/17 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 35 38 41 55 70 82 93 94 101 95 91
V (KT) LAND 30 33 35 38 41 55 70 82 93 94 101 95 91
V (KT) LGEM 30 31 33 34 36 41 47 58 73 86 92 89 82
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 5 2 1 3 1 3 4 6 5 11 7 13 17
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 7 4 0 0 0 -4 -6 0 -1 0 -3 -2
SHEAR DIR 70 54 291 261 235 339 74 72 57 64 41 33 23
SST (C) 28.8 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.3 27.5 26.7 26.1
POT. INT. (KT) 153 156 157 158 158 154 153 154 152 147 139 131 124
200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -52.9 -52.6 -52.4 -52.2 -51.7 -51.4 -50.8 -50.7 -50.6
200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.3
TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 6 7 7 8 8 8 7 6 5 4
700-500 MB RH 68 70 72 74 75 80 80 77 76 74 73 72 71
MODEL VTX (KT) 14 17 16 17 17 20 23 24 27 28 34 32 33
850 MB ENV VOR 11 10 8 -5 -7 -20 -1 -4 1 15 17 24 60
200 MB DIV 33 49 51 47 72 104 136 109 65 54 50 26 30
700-850 TADV 1 1 -1 -1 -2 -2 0 -1 0 -2 -5 -8 -9
LAND (KM) 638 602 584 573 562 551 505 546 629 733 678 711 812
LAT (DEG N) 10.3 10.9 11.4 11.9 12.4 13.2 14.3 15.0 15.5 16.2 17.3 18.0 18.5
LONG(DEG W) 98.8 99.7 100.7 101.6 102.5 104.1 105.6 107.4 109.3 111.1 112.6 114.4 116.3
STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 10 9 9 9 10 9 9 9 10 9
HEAT CONTENT 13 15 22 36 51 35 19 27 18 15 10 6 3
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 538 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 21.1
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 2. 7. 13. 20. 25. 28. 29. 29. 28.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 11. 11. 10. 10. 9. 8.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 13. 18. 17. 24. 20. 19.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0.
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TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 11. 25. 40. 52. 63. 64. 71. 65. 61.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 10.3 98.8
** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092017 NINE 07/22/17 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.1
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.79 4.6
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.94 7.5
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 27.4 0.0 to 106.7 0.26 1.6
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.3
D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.44 2.3
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 3.4
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.6
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.63 0.4
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 41.4 735.9 to -82.5 0.85 0.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 1.9 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.2 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.1 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 32% is 4.4 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 40% is 7.2 times sample mean ( 5.5%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
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SHIPS-RII: 12.7% 29.1% 22.6% 18.9% 0.0% 25.1% 32.3% 39.8%
Logistic: 3.6% 32.9% 21.0% 7.0% 2.7% 30.0% 40.1% 36.7%
Bayesian: 0.1% 5.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.8% 2.7% 5.2%
Consensus: 5.5% 22.4% 14.7% 8.7% 0.9% 18.6% 25.1% 27.2%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092017 NINE 07/22/17 18 UTC ##