* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* FERNANDA EP062017 07/23/17 06 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 24 24 24 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 24 24 24 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LGEM 25 23 20 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 38 34 31 31 32 29 32 29 24 24 26 27 27
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 4 5 2 2 3 -2 -1 0 0 2 -2 1
SHEAR DIR 226 240 244 249 260 278 275 286 272 261 254 257 279
SST (C) 25.7 25.9 26.0 26.1 26.1 26.2 26.3 26.5 26.7 26.9 27.0 27.0 27.0
POT. INT. (KT) 120 121 122 123 123 125 126 128 131 132 133 133 132
200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.8 -54.2 -54.7 -54.7 -55.4 -55.9 -56.4 -56.5 -56.5 -56.4 -56.4 -56.1
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.7 -0.7 -0.8 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 6 7 7 8 8 9 8 10
700-500 MB RH 37 37 34 33 31 35 35 36 32 35 32 36 34
MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 6 5 4 3 3 4 3 3 2 LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -23 -21 -24 -25 -28 -35 -36 -35 -60 -64 -80 -59 -74
200 MB DIV -20 -6 2 24 23 5 12 11 -2 0 -16 -7 -53
700-850 TADV 2 1 7 9 5 2 2 -7 -2 -15 -8 -10 -11
LAND (KM) 597 526 495 467 453 428 390 383 361 377 449 583 696
LAT (DEG N) 19.8 20.1 20.6 21.2 21.8 22.9 23.8 24.5 25.1 25.6 25.9 26.3 26.5
LONG(DEG W) 149.1 149.8 150.2 150.7 151.2 152.5 154.0 155.8 157.7 159.6 161.4 163.2 164.6
STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 10 8 9 7 5
HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 3 2 5 11 14
FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 754 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 2.7 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 16. 20. 24. 26. 27. 26.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. -2. -8. -18. -27. -34. -39. -39. -37.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8.
PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 2. 3. 6. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 11. 9.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -5. -5. -7. -6. -6.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -7. -10. -11. -11. -11. -13. -13.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -7. -11. -13. -16. -15. -13.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 19.8 149.1
** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062017 FERNANDA 07/23/17 06 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.52 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 33.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.00 0.0
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.20 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 2.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.98 999.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 92.8 62.3 to 0.0 0.00 0.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.53 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 244.6 735.9 to -82.5 0.60 999.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% 0.0% 0.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062017 FERNANDA 07/23/17 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##