* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* TEN EP102017 07/23/17 06 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 38 40 44 52 53 54 58 60 61 62
V (KT) LAND 35 36 37 38 40 44 52 53 54 58 60 61 62
V (KT) LGEM 35 36 37 38 38 38 39 40 40 39 40 42 45
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 17 16 13 7 8 3 5 7 8 8 7 13 13
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -1 -2 -5 -1 0 0 0 -4 -2 -3 -2
SHEAR DIR 343 352 356 347 332 331 168 179 173 117 102 66 71
SST (C) 27.6 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.1 27.8 27.7 27.8 27.9 28.2 28.4
POT. INT. (KT) 139 140 141 142 143 143 143 140 140 140 142 145 148
200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.3 -53.3 -52.9 -53.3 -53.4 -52.9 -52.6 -52.2 -52.1 -51.5 -51.5 -51.1
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4
TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 4
700-500 MB RH 70 69 69 69 68 67 67 66 67 64 64 63 61
MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 13 13 13 14 17 16 16 18 18 18 19
850 MB ENV VOR -41 -44 -45 -45 -44 -48 -31 -23 1 13 29 32 53
200 MB DIV 21 41 36 44 54 13 16 -25 -8 19 40 21 26
700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 2 3 2 0 -2 0
LAND (KM) 1051 1083 1117 1143 1171 1240 1321 1402 1497 1604 1724 1862 2004
LAT (DEG N) 14.6 14.6 14.6 14.7 14.7 14.7 14.6 14.6 14.4 14.2 13.8 13.6 13.4
LONG(DEG W) 114.8 115.4 116.0 116.5 117.0 118.0 119.0 120.2 121.4 122.7 123.9 125.5 127.1
STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 8 8
HEAT CONTENT 18 21 23 24 24 20 18 18 15 11 16 17 17
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.2 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 2.9
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 16. 19. 21. 22. 23. 23.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 2.
PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 5. 6. 8. 7. 6. 7.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 17. 18. 19. 23. 25. 26. 27.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 14.6 114.8
** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102017 TEN 07/23/17 06 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 2.2
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.60 2.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.38 1.8
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 22.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.21 0.8
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.2
D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.38 1.2
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.21 0.7
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.9
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.16 0.1
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 134.6 735.9 to -82.5 0.73 0.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.6 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.9 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 2.2% 9.4% 9.1% 7.6% 0.0% 13.6% 14.2% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.7% 0.9% 1.6%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.3%
Consensus: 0.8% 3.3% 3.1% 2.6% 0.0% 4.8% 5.1% 0.6%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102017 TEN 07/23/17 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##