* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* HILARY EP092017 07/24/17 06 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 65 73 81 87 92 97 100 99 97 92 86 84 79
V (KT) LAND 65 73 81 87 92 97 100 99 97 92 86 84 79
V (KT) LGEM 65 74 81 88 93 100 103 99 89 79 71 64 58
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 2 1 4 6 3 9 11 15 17 15 13 10 6
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 0 -3 -4 -2 0 -1 0 -3 0 -2 -1
SHEAR DIR 161 76 109 123 102 350 14 360 347 341 336 304 341
SST (C) 29.3 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.7 27.7 26.9 26.4 25.9 25.5 25.2
POT. INT. (KT) 157 155 154 154 154 153 152 141 133 127 122 118 114
200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.9 -52.5 -52.1 -52.3 -52.1 -51.8 -51.6 -51.6 -51.8 -51.4 -51.5 -51.1
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.8
TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 9 8 8 7 6 6 5 4 3 2
700-500 MB RH 77 77 77 76 77 76 74 77 78 76 75 71 71
MODEL VTX (KT) 14 16 18 19 19 20 23 25 28 29 30 33 34
850 MB ENV VOR -13 -21 -17 -11 -13 -13 -5 -1 12 43 54 90 122
200 MB DIV 29 12 32 57 61 25 22 57 39 62 49 82 47
700-850 TADV 2 1 0 0 0 -1 -6 -6 -6 -5 -9 -1 -4
LAND (KM) 472 453 448 458 477 514 629 684 721 813 877 976 1106
LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.2 14.5 14.9 15.2 15.9 16.6 17.1 17.6 18.1 18.7 19.2 19.5
LONG(DEG W) 103.5 104.2 104.9 105.7 106.5 108.2 110.2 112.2 114.0 115.9 117.7 119.6 121.4
STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 8 9 9 10 9 9 9 9 9 9
HEAT CONTENT 32 22 18 21 26 26 18 12 7 3 1 1 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4
T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 542 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.3 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 21.7
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. -1. -3. -4.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1.
PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 5. 7. 11. 13. 17. 19. 19. 21. 19.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0.
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TOTAL CHANGE 8. 16. 22. 27. 32. 35. 34. 32. 27. 21. 19. 14.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 13.8 103.5
** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092017 HILARY 07/24/17 06 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 12.9
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.45 5.7
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.89 15.4
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 23.8 0.0 to 106.7 0.22 3.1
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 11.5
D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.38 4.3
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.83 10.2
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -3.5
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.74 1.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 73.2 735.9 to -82.5 0.81 0.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 62% is 8.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 68% is 4.4 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 60% is 5.8 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 54% is 7.1 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 42% is 8.1 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 42% is 5.2 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 5.5%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 61.8% 68.0% 60.5% 53.6% 42.3% 41.8% 20.2% 8.0%
Logistic: 52.6% 69.6% 56.4% 52.8% 38.4% 48.3% 31.3% 4.4%
Bayesian: 17.4% 81.8% 65.7% 57.0% 34.1% 48.5% 22.4% 0.2%
Consensus: 43.9% 73.1% 60.9% 54.4% 38.3% 46.2% 24.7% 4.2%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092017 HILARY 07/24/17 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##