* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* HILARY EP092017 07/25/17 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 80 85 88 93 95 95 96 95 90 84 84 74 68
V (KT) LAND 80 85 88 93 95 95 96 95 90 84 84 74 68
V (KT) LGEM 80 84 87 89 90 90 86 81 76 69 63 56 50
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 3 4 7 5 9 12 12 14 17 10 8 2 4
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 0 1 2 2 0 -2 -2 -1 -2 0 1
SHEAR DIR 11 1 328 339 346 358 357 350 335 288 295 277 182
SST (C) 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.4 27.8 27.2 26.7 26.3 26.1 25.6 24.9
POT. INT. (KT) 147 149 149 151 151 148 142 136 131 126 124 118 111
200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.1 -52.1 -51.8 -51.3 -51.6 -51.1 -51.6 -51.0 -51.5 -50.8 -50.9 -50.4
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6
TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 4 3 2 2
700-500 MB RH 75 74 73 74 74 77 78 78 77 76 74 70 65
MODEL VTX (KT) 21 20 21 24 24 25 28 31 32 32 37 33 32
850 MB ENV VOR -6 -18 -20 -14 -8 0 31 38 51 64 105 124 152
200 MB DIV 90 63 34 45 73 68 69 48 70 59 75 39 43
700-850 TADV 1 2 3 3 -1 -7 -3 -9 -7 0 -4 -3 -3
LAND (KM) 441 456 477 507 560 708 722 772 868 932 1023 1132 1217
LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.1 15.4 15.7 16.0 16.6 17.0 17.6 18.2 18.7 19.1 19.5 19.9
LONG(DEG W) 105.3 106.1 106.8 107.9 108.9 111.1 112.9 114.8 116.8 118.5 120.1 121.7 123.3
STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 11 11 10 9 10 10 8 8 8 8
HEAT CONTENT 17 21 26 29 23 17 10 5 2 2 2 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4
T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 559 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 8.5
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -6. -10. -13. -16. -18. -18.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4.
PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 3. 4. 6. 10. 13. 15. 14. 19. 14. 11.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0.
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TOTAL CHANGE 5. 8. 13. 15. 15. 16. 15. 10. 4. 4. -6. -12.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 14.8 105.3
** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092017 HILARY 07/25/17 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.8
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.27 1.6
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.76 6.3
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 23.2 0.0 to 106.7 0.22 1.4
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 4.3
D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.50 2.8
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.81 4.8
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.7
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.66 0.4
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 155.2 735.9 to -82.5 0.71 0.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.4 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 2.1 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.4 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.8 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 26.5% 32.3% 24.8% 21.2% 19.8% 19.5% 13.2% 0.0%
Logistic: 25.1% 34.0% 22.1% 21.1% 16.4% 8.3% 2.8% 0.2%
Bayesian: 6.9% 53.0% 28.9% 16.2% 7.4% 6.1% 1.2% 0.0%
Consensus: 19.5% 39.7% 25.3% 19.5% 14.5% 11.3% 5.7% 0.1%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092017 HILARY 07/25/17 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##