* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* GREG EP072017 07/25/17 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 30 28 25 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LAND 35 33 30 28 25 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LGEM 35 32 30 28 26 22 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 12 13 15 18 23 32 35 20 5 10 12 12 10
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -2 -2 -7 -5 -2 9 3 1 2 1
SHEAR DIR 258 278 271 283 292 292 303 316 345 127 141 147 166
SST (C) 26.1 25.8 25.6 25.4 25.3 25.2 25.3 25.4 25.4 25.5 25.8 26.3 26.8
POT. INT. (KT) 124 121 118 116 115 114 115 116 116 117 120 126 131
200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.9 -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 -52.5 -52.9 -52.5 -52.8 -53.0 -53.6 -53.7 -53.5
200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.2
TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 5 6 5 6 7
700-500 MB RH 46 45 43 41 39 34 33 30 31 30 31 33 33
MODEL VTX (KT) 10 8 8 7 6 7 6 4 3 4 3 2 2
850 MB ENV VOR -3 4 7 1 -1 15 17 25 20 29 19 25 19
200 MB DIV 16 8 -8 -15 4 -9 -3 -30 -47 -32 -21 -35 -51
700-850 TADV 0 1 1 1 1 1 2 -2 0 -2 0 1 2
LAND (KM) 1864 1783 1703 1628 1554 1394 1242 1118 1000 878 759 667 616
LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.4 16.9 17.2 17.5 17.7 17.5 17.1 16.7 16.3 15.9 15.4 14.8
LONG(DEG W) 137.6 138.3 138.9 139.5 140.2 141.7 143.2 144.5 145.8 147.2 148.7 150.2 151.7
STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 7
HEAT CONTENT 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 5
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5
T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 695 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 15. 15. 14.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -2. -8. -12. -14. -14. -14. -13. -11.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6.
PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -8. -8.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -6. -7. -7.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -7. -10. -15. -23. -31. -34. -34. -34. -34. -32.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 15.9 137.6
** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072017 GREG 07/25/17 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 0.6
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.40 0.6
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.15 0.3
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.4 0.0 to 106.7 0.00 0.0
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 0.6
D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.18 0.3
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.61 0.9
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 52.2 62.3 to 0.0 0.16 -0.1
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.47 0.1
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 280.6 735.9 to -82.5 0.56 0.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.3 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 2.3% 5.1% 3.3% 2.1% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 0.8% 1.7% 1.1% 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072017 GREG 07/25/17 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##