* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* IRWIN EP102017 07/26/17 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 55 47 41 39 38 40 41 44 47 50 48 44 41
V (KT) LAND 55 47 41 39 38 40 41 44 47 50 48 44 41
V (KT) LGEM 55 47 41 38 35 34 34 36 36 36 35 31 27
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 14 16 15 12 15 21 19 22 18 20 16 13 11
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 1 0 -4 -4 0 -2 0 0 0 2 5
SHEAR DIR 148 137 133 115 82 58 47 71 73 76 95 94 81
SST (C) 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.3 26.7 25.1 24.2 24.0
POT. INT. (KT) 137 138 137 137 135 133 132 133 135 131 114 103 100
200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.5 -51.2 -51.4 -51.5 -51.0 -51.5 -51.0 -51.7 -50.8 -51.3 -50.5 -50.9
200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.3
TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 3 3 3
700-500 MB RH 58 55 56 56 58 62 63 67 70 69 65 57 48
MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 19 19 19 20 20 22 21 23 22 20 19
850 MB ENV VOR 22 43 68 93 113 121 112 114 102 97 83 72 66
200 MB DIV 10 27 11 0 -3 40 27 22 44 40 9 16 -6
700-850 TADV 1 2 1 0 0 1 2 2 8 4 1 0 0
LAND (KM) 1423 1483 1544 1598 1652 1699 1722 1707 1638 1531 1382 1352 1413
LAT (DEG N) 15.6 15.5 15.3 15.1 14.9 14.7 14.6 14.7 15.3 16.8 19.1 20.3 20.6
LONG(DEG W) 121.8 122.5 123.1 123.6 124.1 124.5 124.7 124.6 124.3 124.3 124.7 125.5 126.5
STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 5 4 2 0 2 6 10 9 6 5
HEAT CONTENT 3 3 5 8 10 12 13 12 9 7 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 531 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.3 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.2
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 8. 7. 6.
PERSISTENCE -6. -10. -12. -12. -12. -10. -8. -5. -3. -2. 2. 4.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 5. 4. 6. 4. 1. 1.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -8. -14. -16. -17. -15. -14. -11. -8. -5. -7. -11. -14.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 15.6 121.8
** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102017 IRWIN 07/26/17 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -25.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.00 0.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.38 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.26 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 5.8 0.0 to 106.7 0.05 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.22 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.49 999.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.60 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 369.4 735.9 to -82.5 0.45 999.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102017 IRWIN 07/26/17 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##