* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* IRWIN EP102017 07/26/17 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 45 37 32 30 29 32 35 39 43 49 49 48 47
V (KT) LAND 45 37 32 30 29 32 35 39 43 49 49 48 47
V (KT) LGEM 45 37 32 30 28 28 29 31 33 35 34 32 29
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 15 14 10 13 16 19 22 17 18 17 12 12 13
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 -3 -4 -5 -4 -2 1 0 3 5 0
SHEAR DIR 142 141 124 90 71 64 57 61 58 71 57 45 11
SST (C) 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.4 27.4 27.3 27.2 26.8 25.4 24.5 23.8
POT. INT. (KT) 138 137 137 136 135 134 133 133 133 131 117 106 98
200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.7 -51.7 -51.8 -51.7 -51.9 -51.9 -51.6 -51.5 -51.5 -51.3 -51.1 -51.7
200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 3
700-500 MB RH 56 56 58 59 59 61 61 66 65 68 64 57 55
MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 17 18 18 19 20 19 19 22 20 19 19
850 MB ENV VOR 45 57 75 103 93 104 114 116 93 80 68 29 -6
200 MB DIV 25 17 26 20 19 35 29 16 15 28 25 6 -34
700-850 TADV 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 4 3 0 -2 5 -2
LAND (KM) 1507 1564 1621 1679 1737 1808 1816 1778 1701 1615 1498 1428 1383
LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.1 14.9 14.7 14.4 14.2 14.3 14.6 15.1 16.3 18.3 19.7 20.8
LONG(DEG W) 122.5 123.1 123.7 124.2 124.7 125.4 125.6 125.4 124.9 124.9 125.4 125.9 126.3
STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 5 5 2 1 2 4 8 9 7 5
HEAT CONTENT 5 6 9 12 14 17 16 15 11 8 2 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):245/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ -2
T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 582 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 32.5 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.1
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 11. 9.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 9. 7.
PERSISTENCE -6. -10. -12. -13. -13. -12. -10. -7. -5. -3. 1. 4.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 2. 5. 4. 2. 1.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
GOES PREDICTORS -2. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -4. -2. -2. -2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -8. -13. -15. -16. -13. -10. -6. -2. 4. 4. 3. 2.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 15.2 122.5
** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102017 IRWIN 07/26/17 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -25.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.00 0.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.47 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.32 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 9.2 0.0 to 106.7 0.09 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.29 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 32.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.15 999.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.68 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 277.2 735.9 to -82.5 0.56 999.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102017 IRWIN 07/26/17 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##