* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* IRWIN EP102017 07/27/17 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 50 47 46 46 46 48 50 51 55 54 53 47 46
V (KT) LAND 50 47 46 46 46 48 50 51 55 54 53 47 46
V (KT) LGEM 50 48 47 46 46 46 47 47 47 46 43 37 33
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 13 10 17 18 23 20 16 14 16 14 10 4 8
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -5 -5 -4 -3 0 -1 1 2 1 0 -1
SHEAR DIR 142 111 84 73 61 53 59 56 63 49 33 25 60
SST (C) 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.4 27.4 27.3 27.1 26.3 25.1 24.4 23.8
POT. INT. (KT) 138 139 137 135 134 134 134 135 133 126 114 106 100
200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.6 -51.6 -51.6 -51.2 -51.9 -51.2 -51.8 -51.3 -51.7 -51.1 -51.8 -51.9
200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.3 -0.1 0.2 0.8
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 2 2
700-500 MB RH 57 59 60 61 61 60 65 67 71 68 60 56 53
MODEL VTX (KT) 18 17 18 19 19 20 21 20 22 21 20 17 18
850 MB ENV VOR 76 87 110 103 104 104 112 93 83 66 63 43 46
200 MB DIV 23 31 33 32 32 17 24 2 44 12 -1 -31 -7
700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 -1 0 2 2 1
LAND (KM) 1545 1610 1676 1714 1753 1809 1817 1732 1602 1555 1572 1556 1530
LAT (DEG N) 15.0 14.8 14.5 14.4 14.3 14.4 14.4 14.9 15.9 17.2 18.6 20.1 21.7
LONG(DEG W) 122.8 123.4 124.0 124.4 124.8 125.6 125.7 125.1 124.4 124.9 126.7 127.8 128.6
STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 5 4 4 2 2 5 6 8 10 9 9
HEAT CONTENT 6 8 12 14 15 16 16 13 8 8 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):235/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ -2
T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.1 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.2
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -5. -4.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 8. 7.
PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 3. 6. 4. 3. -1. 0.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -0. -0. -0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. 0. 1. 5. 4. 3. -3. -4.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 15.0 122.8
** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102017 IRWIN 07/27/17 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.42 1.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.15 0.5
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 11.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.10 0.3
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 1.9
D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.33 0.7
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.33 0.8
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.7
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.44 0.1
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 281.4 735.9 to -82.5 0.56 0.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.4 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.5 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.5 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 2.2% 6.5% 5.6% 3.9% 0.0% 7.0% 7.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.3% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 0.8% 2.4% 2.0% 1.3% 0.0% 2.3% 2.3% 0.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102017 IRWIN 07/27/17 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##