* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST          *
                    * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  HILARY      EP092017  07/27/17  06 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    75    71    70    70    68    70    68    63    58    51    45    40    37
V (KT) LAND       75    71    70    70    68    70    68    63    58    51    45    40    37
V (KT) LGEM       75    70    67    64    62    57    53    49    45    42    39    36    34
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)        14    15    15    14    13    11     9    10     4     5     5     4     4
SHEAR ADJ (KT)     2     0    -2    -2    -4    -2    -2    -2    -6    -2    -5    -4    -4
SHEAR DIR        344   335   353   349     9   327   325   316   276   180   113     9   289
SST (C)         27.3  27.2  27.1  26.8  26.6  26.1  25.6  24.5  23.7  23.5  23.6  23.1  22.8
POT. INT. (KT)   137   135   134   131   129   124   119   108    99    97    98    92    89
200 MB T (C)   -51.4 -51.7 -51.7 -51.4 -51.8 -52.0 -51.5 -51.5 -51.3 -51.5 -51.3 -51.8 -51.8
200 MB VXT (C)   0.3   0.4   0.5   0.5   0.4   0.5   0.5   0.4   0.4   0.6   0.7   0.8   0.4
TH_E DEV (C)       8     7     6     6     5     4     3     2     1     1     1     1     2
700-500 MB RH     73    72    73    73    71    71    71    66    61    56    51    47    44
MODEL VTX (KT)    22    24    25    25    24    26    26    26    24    23    22    20    19
850 MB ENV VOR    18    23    41    44    52    54    67    83    79    70    76    76    62
200 MB DIV        22    44    54    37    31    46    19    39     8    -7    -4    -6    -5
700-850 TADV      -4    -3    -4    -4    -4    -3    -2    -3    -4    -1     0     0     1
LAND (KM)        801   841   889   914   932   990  1100  1176  1280  1411  1542  1662  1687
LAT (DEG N)     17.2  17.4  17.6  18.0  18.3  19.0  19.6  20.4  21.1  21.6  22.0  22.6  23.3
LONG(DEG W)    114.7 115.6 116.4 117.2 118.0 119.6 121.4 123.3 125.3 127.2 128.9 130.5 131.9
STM SPEED (KT)     9     8     8     8     8     9    10    10    10     8     8     8     7
HEAT CONTENT       5     5     5     4     2     2     0     0     0     0     0     0     0

  FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10      CX,CY:  -8/  3
  T-12 MAX WIND:  90            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  622  (MEAN=550)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:   8.4 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  96.0 (MEAN=65.0)
  PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR):            0.0

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -2.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.   0.   0.  -0.  -3.  -7. -11. -16. -19. -21. -23. -25.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG    -1.  -3.  -4.  -4.  -3.  -2.  -0.   2.   4.   5.   5.   5.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ    -0.  -0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR    -0.  -0.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -4.
  PERSISTENCE           -4.  -6.  -7.  -7.  -6.  -5.  -3.  -2.  -1.   0.   2.   3.
  200/250 MB TEMP.      -0.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -3.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.   0.   0.  -0.  -1.  -3.  -4.  -6.  -8.  -9. -11.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   2.   1.   1.   1.
  MODEL VTX TENDENCY     0.   1.   2.   1.   4.   5.   4.   3.   0.  -1.  -2.  -3.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE     -0.   0.   0.  -0.   0.   0.   0.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  850-700 T ADVEC       -0.  -0.   0.   0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.   0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.
  GOES PREDICTORS        1.   2.   2.   2.   3.   3.   3.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT    -0.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE          -4.  -5.  -5.  -7.  -5.  -7. -12. -17. -24. -30. -35. -38.

                CURRENT MAX WIND (KT):   75. LAT, LON:   17.2   114.7

      ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092017 HILARY     07/27/17  06 UTC **
 (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
 
     Predictor             Value   RI Predictor Range  Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):   -15.0     -22.0  to   44.0       0.11           0.5
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   :    58.3      40.5  to  149.3       0.16           0.4
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :    14.5      18.9  to    1.4       0.25           0.9
 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) :     4.2       0.0  to  106.7       0.04           0.1
 MAXIMUM WIND (kt)     :    75.0      22.5  to  132.0       0.77           2.1
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :    37.6     -33.0  to  156.2       0.37           0.9
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :     8.4      37.8  to    2.1       0.82           2.2
 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm:     0.0      62.3  to    0.0       1.00          -0.8
 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP  :    -0.3       2.2  to   -1.9       0.62           0.2
 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2):   277.4     735.9  to  -82.5       0.56           0.0
 
 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold=   4% is   0.5 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  10% is   0.6 times sample mean (15.3%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   7% is   0.6 times sample mean (10.4%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%)
    
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  RI (kt / h)  | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48  |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   SHIPS-RII:     3.9%    9.9%    6.6%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%
    Logistic:     0.3%    0.6%    0.2%    0.1%    0.1%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%
    Bayesian:     0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%
   Consensus:     1.4%    3.5%    2.3%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092017 HILARY     07/27/17  06 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##