* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* HILARY EP092017 07/28/17 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 65 64 63 63 63 59 54 44 41 33 28 23 20
V (KT) LAND 65 64 63 63 63 59 54 44 41 33 28 23 20
V (KT) LGEM 65 63 61 60 57 51 46 40 35 31 28 25 23
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 11 9 9 8 5 12 7 5 5 2 3 3 3
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -3 -1 -1 -4 -3 0 -1 -5 -1 -5 -1
SHEAR DIR 4 21 23 358 317 348 9 315 301 302 118 246 226
SST (C) 26.8 26.5 26.2 26.0 25.8 25.0 23.8 23.5 23.7 23.3 22.9 22.8 22.9
POT. INT. (KT) 131 128 125 123 121 113 101 98 99 95 90 89 90
200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.1 -52.4 -52.1 -51.4 -51.6 -51.2 -51.5 -51.1 -51.8 -52.1 -52.1 -52.2
200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 3 3 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1
700-500 MB RH 71 71 69 70 68 66 61 56 53 48 45 39 36
MODEL VTX (KT) 22 24 24 25 25 25 24 20 20 17 16 13 12
850 MB ENV VOR 39 44 44 57 70 75 88 71 77 67 75 57 49
200 MB DIV 44 27 38 39 37 9 19 5 -4 -16 -4 -1 6
700-850 TADV -3 -4 -5 -4 -4 -8 -4 0 -6 -3 0 -1 0
LAND (KM) 883 895 915 952 997 1101 1222 1379 1548 1694 1731 1784 1870
LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.5 18.9 19.3 19.6 20.3 21.0 21.4 21.7 22.3 23.1 23.7 24.1
LONG(DEG W) 116.9 117.7 118.5 119.4 120.2 122.1 124.5 126.7 128.8 130.7 132.3 133.8 135.4
STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 9 9 10 11 10 9 9 8 7 8
HEAT CONTENT 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 618 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.4
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -6. -9. -12. -14. -15. -17. -19.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2.
PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 3. -2. -2. -5. -7. -9. -10.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -2. -6. -11. -21. -24. -32. -37. -42. -45.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 18.1 116.9
** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092017 HILARY 07/28/17 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.8
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 60.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.18 0.8
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.60 3.7
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.8 0.0 to 106.7 0.01 0.0
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 4.1
D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.37 1.5
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 2.7
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.2
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.57 0.3
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 250.4 735.9 to -82.5 0.59 0.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.1 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 10.0% 16.5% 13.7% 11.2% 10.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.4% 0.8% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 3.5% 5.8% 4.7% 3.8% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092017 HILARY 07/28/17 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##