* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* HILARY EP092017 07/28/17 06 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 60 57 55 53 51 46 41 35 31 25 22 17 DIS
V (KT) LAND 60 57 55 53 51 46 41 35 31 25 22 17 DIS
V (KT) LGEM 60 57 55 52 49 44 39 35 31 28 25 22 20
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 7 8 7 6 10 7 4 3 4 2 6 3 10
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -3 -2 -5 -1 -2 0 -4 -2 -4 0 -1
SHEAR DIR 15 18 359 335 337 324 277 216 138 90 167 206 199
SST (C) 26.5 26.2 26.0 25.7 25.4 24.3 23.4 23.4 23.4 22.9 22.7 22.7 22.7
POT. INT. (KT) 128 125 123 120 117 106 97 96 96 90 88 88 87
200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.7 -52.6 -51.9 -52.0 -52.0 -51.6 -51.9 -51.7 -52.2 -52.4 -52.6 -52.8
200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.2 -0.1 -0.1
TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 3 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 2
700-500 MB RH 72 72 70 68 67 62 57 52 47 42 38 36 33
MODEL VTX (KT) 22 21 23 21 22 20 20 18 17 15 14 12 10
850 MB ENV VOR 29 26 37 55 63 68 67 52 65 62 53 30 23
200 MB DIV 23 24 30 32 36 23 0 10 -9 -5 -3 3 -1
700-850 TADV -5 -5 -4 -6 -8 -2 -1 -3 0 -2 0 0 1
LAND (KM) 882 902 929 968 1017 1115 1253 1420 1577 1678 1708 1759 1804
LAT (DEG N) 18.5 18.9 19.2 19.7 20.1 20.9 21.5 21.9 22.4 22.9 23.6 24.2 24.9
LONG(DEG W) 117.5 118.3 119.0 119.9 120.8 123.0 125.3 127.5 129.5 131.2 132.6 134.0 135.3
STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 10 10 11 11 10 9 8 7 7 6
HEAT CONTENT 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4
T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 614 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.3 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -16.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3.
PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. -0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -2. -2. -2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -7. -9. -14. -19. -25. -29. -35. -38. -43. -46.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 18.5 117.5
** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092017 HILARY 07/28/17 06 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.8
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 62.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.20 0.9
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.64 3.8
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.6 0.0 to 106.7 0.01 0.0
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 4.2
D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.33 1.3
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.46 2.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.2
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.55 0.3
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 238.4 735.9 to -82.5 0.61 0.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 0.9 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.3 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 6.7% 14.2% 13.0% 11.0% 9.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.8% 1.3% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 2.5% 5.2% 4.5% 3.7% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092017 HILARY 07/28/17 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##