* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* HILARY EP092017 07/28/17 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 55 53 51 48 45 37 26 21 22 18 16 DIS DIS
V (KT) LAND 55 53 51 48 45 37 26 21 22 18 16 DIS DIS
V (KT) LGEM 55 53 50 48 44 37 30 25 23 21 18 16 DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 10 8 8 11 13 12 9 9 6 4 4 9 15
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -5 -3 -2 -5 1 -2 0 -3 -1 -2 -2
SHEAR DIR 357 353 338 351 351 342 311 280 4 200 263 202 222
SST (C) 25.9 25.6 25.3 24.8 24.2 22.8 22.4 22.5 22.5 22.3 22.3 22.2 22.1
POT. INT. (KT) 122 119 116 111 105 91 86 87 86 84 84 82 81
200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.1 -52.3 -52.4 -52.1 -51.8 -51.8 -51.7 -52.1 -52.1 -52.3 -52.4 -52.8
200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.1
TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 2 1
700-500 MB RH 73 69 68 67 65 61 54 51 46 40 35 31 29
MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 20 20 19 17 13 13 17 16 14 11 9
850 MB ENV VOR 36 53 59 49 54 46 32 45 38 47 42 36 26
200 MB DIV 43 30 35 28 13 -2 15 4 -7 -2 0 0 14
700-850 TADV -3 -5 -8 -8 -7 -8 -4 -4 -2 4 1 3 5
LAND (KM) 898 927 967 999 1024 1118 1265 1427 1516 1586 1638 1671 1686
LAT (DEG N) 19.4 20.0 20.5 21.0 21.4 22.3 23.3 23.9 24.1 24.5 25.2 26.0 27.0
LONG(DEG W) 118.8 119.7 120.5 121.4 122.3 124.3 126.6 128.6 130.3 131.9 133.4 134.6 135.6
STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 9 10 10 11 10 9 7 8 7 7 7
HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4
T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 615 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.8 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -7. -9. -11. -11. -11. -12. -15.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -0. -0. 1.
PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -16. -17.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. -1. -4. -8. -9. -4. -5. -7. -10. -12.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -7. -10. -18. -29. -34. -33. -37. -39. -45. -51.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 19.4 118.8
** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092017 HILARY 07/28/17 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.6
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 59.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.17 0.7
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.50 2.6
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.00 0.0
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 3.6
D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.33 1.2
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.50 1.9
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.1
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.73 0.3
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 247.6 735.9 to -82.5 0.60 0.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.7 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 0.8 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 5.1% 12.7% 10.8% 8.1% 7.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 1.8% 4.3% 3.6% 2.7% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092017 HILARY 07/28/17 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##