* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* IRWIN EP102017 07/28/17 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 54 54 55 54 49 43 37 35 34 33 31
V (KT) LAND 50 52 54 54 55 54 49 43 37 35 34 33 31
V (KT) LGEM 50 52 53 53 52 49 44 36 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 17 18 16 16 19 16 16 13 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -1 0 1 1 2 1 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 46 49 50 50 55 55 32 31 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.2 27.1 26.3 24.9 23.9 23.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 133 132 133 133 133 126 112 102 97 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -52.3 -51.8 -52.0 -52.2 -52.2 -52.1 -52.3 -52.2 -52.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 62 64 65 66 65 67 64 58 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 19 21 21 20 21 21 19 18 17 LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 74 85 82 66 59 67 34 13 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 28 60 53 45 30 -6 1 5 -13 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 -2 0 -5 0 -10 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 1731 1728 1724 1699 1674 1577 1449 1434 1499 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 14.8 14.9 15.0 15.4 15.7 17.1 19.1 20.8 22.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 125.0 125.1 125.1 125.1 125.1 125.1 125.6 126.9 128.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 2 1 2 3 5 9 10 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 6 6 6 5 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 591 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.6
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3.
PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 4. 5. 4. -1. -7. -13. -15. -16. -17. -19.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 14.8 125.0
** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102017 IRWIN 07/28/17 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 2.5
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.39 1.5
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.10 0.5
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 5.4 0.0 to 106.7 0.05 0.2
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 3.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.40 1.4
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 2.3
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.1
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.65 0.3
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 238.6 735.9 to -82.5 0.61 0.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.0 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 7.9% 15.2% 10.6% 8.0% 6.7% 10.7% 8.6% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.7% 1.6% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 2.9% 5.7% 3.8% 2.8% 2.3% 3.6% 2.9% 0.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102017 IRWIN 07/28/17 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##