* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* IRWIN EP102017 07/29/17 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 51 53 51 48 43 35 28 27 25 24 23
V (KT) LAND 50 51 51 53 51 48 43 35 28 27 25 24 23
V (KT) LGEM 50 50 50 49 48 43 37 31 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 19 16 16 16 15 14 15 14 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 3 4 1 -2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 44 54 55 58 58 53 42 23 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 27.3 27.3 27.2 27.1 26.9 26.0 24.4 23.4 22.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 133 134 133 132 131 123 107 96 90 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.0 -52.3 -52.3 -51.9 -52.5 -52.0 -52.5 -52.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 5 3 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 65 65 65 66 66 65 61 57 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 18 20 18 17 16 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 80 75 65 71 73 56 32 -10 -12 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 57 45 23 6 8 -15 9 -3 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 -2 -1 0 -7 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 1715 1688 1662 1638 1614 1557 1429 1396 1419 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 14.7 15.1 15.4 15.8 16.2 17.5 19.9 21.7 23.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 124.7 124.7 124.7 124.8 124.8 125.3 126.1 127.1 128.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 4 4 6 9 11 10 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 6 5 4 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):220/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 584 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.2 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.4
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 1. -0. -2. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 3. 1. -2. -7. -15. -22. -23. -25. -26. -27.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 14.7 124.7
** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102017 IRWIN 07/29/17 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.39 1.4
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.15 0.8
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 4.2 0.0 to 106.7 0.04 0.2
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 3.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.32 1.1
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.75 2.8
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.63 0.3
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 233.6 735.9 to -82.5 0.61 0.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.0 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.0 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 7.1% 15.9% 10.5% 7.5% 7.1% 10.0% 8.3% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.5% 1.5% 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 2.5% 5.8% 3.7% 2.6% 2.4% 3.4% 2.8% 0.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102017 IRWIN 07/29/17 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##