* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* IRWIN EP102017 07/29/17 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 50 49 47 45 42 38 32 26 25 24 22 20 18
V (KT) LAND 50 49 47 45 42 38 32 26 25 24 22 20 18
V (KT) LGEM 50 49 48 46 44 38 32 26 22 19 17 DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 18 15 12 11 11 7 9 5 4 4 8 N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 3 0 0 -1 0 -1 0 0 -2 N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 41 54 69 58 51 9 346 292 251 241 241 N/A N/A
SST (C) 27.2 27.1 26.8 26.1 25.3 23.8 23.0 22.1 21.7 21.6 21.7 N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 133 133 131 125 117 102 93 83 78 76 77 N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.4 -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -52.2 -52.4 -52.4 -52.3 -52.5 -53.0 N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 4 4 3 1 0 0 0 1 N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 67 68 68 65 62 58 55 51 45 38 32 N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 17 16 14 14 13 12 11 9 7 LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 72 75 73 53 38 11 -15 -1 7 16 8 N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 10 22 17 6 6 -5 -12 -6 0 5 5 N/A N/A
700-850 TADV -4 -5 -3 -1 -3 -1 -7 1 2 0 0 N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 1654 1610 1568 1518 1452 1394 1414 1411 1392 1447 1551 N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.9 16.5 17.6 18.6 20.9 22.9 24.8 26.4 27.2 27.2 N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 124.5 124.5 124.5 124.8 125.1 126.5 128.0 129.6 131.3 132.8 134.1 N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 9 11 12 13 12 11 9 7 5 N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 3 3 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 2 CX,CY: 1/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 644 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.4 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -8.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -12. -11. -10.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -5. -8. -12. -18. -24. -25. -26. -28. -30. -32.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 15.3 124.5
** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102017 IRWIN 07/29/17 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.7
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.34 1.1
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.31 1.3
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 2.6 0.0 to 106.7 0.02 0.1
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 2.5
D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.24 0.7
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.46 1.4
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.9
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.37 0.1
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 235.8 735.9 to -82.5 0.61 0.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.6 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.8 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.8 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 2.6% 9.7% 7.9% 5.8% 4.6% 8.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.3% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 1.0% 3.5% 2.7% 2.0% 1.5% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102017 IRWIN 07/29/17 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##