* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* HILARY EP092017 07/30/17 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 50 45 39 34 28 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LAND 50 45 39 34 28 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LGEM 50 47 42 38 34 27 23 20 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 9 8 9 10 12 13 12 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 -3 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 346 321 303 275 260 244 206 237 241 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 22.9 22.3 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.1 22.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 92 86 83 83 82 81 79 80 80 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.7 -51.8 -51.5 -51.1 -51.5 -51.6 -52.0 -52.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 63 58 56 54 53 50 50 47 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 17 17 15 12 11 12 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 48 33 18 28 36 30 33 13 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 3 0 16 11 17 22 29 1 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV -2 -6 -9 -3 1 -1 1 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 998 1059 1131 1231 1318 1397 1485 1542 1593 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 22.6 23.2 23.8 24.3 24.8 25.4 25.4 25.4 25.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 123.1 124.3 125.4 126.7 128.0 130.2 131.5 132.3 133.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 13 12 8 5 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 12 CX,CY: -8/ 8
T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 579 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.2 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -6. -8. -12. -14. -14. -15. -14. -12. -13. -16.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. 1. -0. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9.
PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2.
THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -15. -17. -19. -21.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -9. -9. -8.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0.
GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0.
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TOTAL CHANGE -5. -11. -16. -22. -31. -34. -35. -37. -38. -39. -41. -45.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 22.6 123.1
** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092017 HILARY 07/30/17 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 35.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.54 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.00 0.0
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.22 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.38 999.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 17.4 62.3 to 0.0 0.72 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -1.9 0.75 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 352.0 735.9 to -82.5 0.47 999.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.3 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 2.1% 4.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 0.7% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092017 HILARY 07/30/17 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##