* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* HILARY EP092017 07/30/17 06 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 45 39 33 28 23 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LAND 45 39 33 28 23 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LGEM 45 40 36 32 28 23 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 10 11 11 12 12 12 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 1 1 0 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 320 303 282 269 259 247 229 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 22.3 22.0 21.9 21.9 21.9 21.9 21.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 86 83 82 82 81 80 79 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.9 -51.7 -51.4 -51.4 -51.8 -52.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 60 57 53 52 49 48 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 18 16 15 14 13 11 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 28 12 20 26 29 25 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 7 9 7 12 6 19 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV -6 -8 -6 -2 -2 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 1046 1126 1217 1303 1333 1424 1511 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 23.2 23.8 24.4 24.9 25.4 25.9 25.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 124.1 125.4 126.6 127.9 129.2 131.2 132.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 11 7 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 7
T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -11. -11. -10. -7. -8. -11.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10.
PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0.
THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -13. -15. -18. -20. -22.
700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -4. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0.
GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -8. -8. -7. -8. -8.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -6. -12. -17. -22. -29. -32. -34. -37. -38. -39. -42. -45.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 23.2 124.1
** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092017 HILARY 07/30/17 06 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 37.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.44 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.00 0.0
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.22 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.60 999.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 30.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.52 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.69 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 332.4 735.9 to -82.5 0.49 999.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.3 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 2.0% 4.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 0.7% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092017 HILARY 07/30/17 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##