* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* IRWIN EP102017 07/30/17 06 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 50 50 50 48 46 38 34 29 26 21 18 15 DIS
V (KT) LAND 50 50 50 48 46 38 34 29 26 21 18 15 DIS
V (KT) LGEM 50 50 48 46 43 36 30 24 21 18 16 DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 11 11 10 9 8 11 6 10 9 12 13 N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 0 -1 0 0 -3 -2 -3 -4 N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 65 47 35 32 19 1 299 261 234 227 226 N/A N/A
SST (C) 26.7 25.9 25.2 24.4 23.8 22.7 21.9 21.6 21.4 21.3 21.1 N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 130 123 116 108 102 90 81 77 74 71 68 N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -52.6 -53.0 -52.9 -52.4 -52.4 -52.4 -52.3 -52.4 -52.5 -52.7 -53.0 N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 3 3 1 0 0 0 0 1 N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 68 65 63 62 59 55 51 46 40 36 30 N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 15 13 13 11 11 10 9 7 6 LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 71 55 33 21 6 -27 -4 -6 -2 0 0 N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 16 12 9 8 4 -6 7 -2 -1 4 -10 N/A N/A
700-850 TADV -4 -2 -2 -2 -2 -8 0 5 1 2 0 N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 1571 1523 1466 1429 1404 1400 1356 1354 1421 1439 1363 N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 16.7 17.7 18.7 19.9 21.0 23.4 25.5 26.9 27.6 28.2 28.7 N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 124.7 125.1 125.4 126.1 126.7 128.1 129.7 131.3 132.8 133.5 133.5 N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 12 13 13 13 11 9 6 3 2 N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 7 CX,CY: 0/ 7
T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 678 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -12.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -14. -15. -17.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -2. -3. -6. -6. -7. -8. -11. -12. -11. -10.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -2. -4. -12. -16. -21. -24. -29. -32. -35. -38.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 16.7 124.7
** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102017 IRWIN 07/30/17 06 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.2
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 65.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.23 1.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.51 2.9
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 1.2 0.0 to 106.7 0.01 0.1
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 3.3
D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.23 0.9
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 2.9
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.2
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.48 0.2
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 266.8 735.9 to -82.5 0.57 0.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.1 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.2 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 7.8% 16.1% 12.4% 9.3% 8.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 1.1% 1.8% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 3.0% 6.0% 4.3% 3.2% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102017 IRWIN 07/30/17 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##